UFC 304 Paths to Victory: How does Leon Edwards beat Belal Muhammad and retain his welterweight title?

Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad are set to run issues again.

This Saturday, Edwards and Muhammad face off for the welterweight title in the principle occasion of UFC 304, a rematch of their 2021 struggle that resulted in a no-contest after an inadvertent eye poke rendered Muhammad unable to proceed. How a lot can we be taught from their first struggle, how a lot has every man modified since then, and who will depart Manchester, England with welterweight gold?

Let’s have a look.

Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Paths to Victory for Leon Edwards at UFC 304

Edwards has change into one of many high pound-for-pound fighters within the sport due to his distinctive well-roundedness. Primarily a kickboxer, Edwards is an elite anti-wrestler, however he’s additionally prepared to make use of clinch ways and wrestling of his personal if the event requires it, that means “Rocky” can compete in all phases and take fights to the one which favors his opponent the least. The premise off all of that is footwork. Edwards is superb at controlling the vary and angling out of stress, or collapsing it when essential. The straw that stirs the drink for Edwards is that he’s the one dictating the place the motion is going down. And within the first struggle with Muhammad, that gave Edwards an enormous benefit.

Muhammad is a stress fighter, and Edwards got here out very aggressively, placing Muhammad on his heels the place he’s least snug. From there, Edwards regularly snapped in kicks to the physique to set that vary and stymie Muhammad. When Muhammad did attempt to get issues going, Edwards would merely again out or swap stances, once more disrupting Muhammad’s offense, and there’s no cause to suppose he can’t do the identical on Saturday.

The opposite large weapon for Edwards of their first struggle, and one that ought to carry by to Saturday, is the jab + rear-hand straight. Edwards doesn’t have a terrific jab, but it surely’s a ok setup punch and he used it to sneak in lengthy rear-straights from both stance that discovered the mark constantly. Then, when Muhammad started to parry the straight punches, Edwards snuck a head kick over the guard that damage Muhammad. Once more, all of that must be out there to Edwards on Saturday.

So far as one thing new, we noticed a few of it within the first encounter however Edwards seems to be to be the superior clinch fighter of the 2. Edwards has good positioning in tie-ups and extra importantly finds tough methods to get angles and land good knees. One of many major methods Edwards can lose this struggle is to easily get out-worked by Muhammad, so discovering refuge within the clinches ought to “Keep in mind the Identify” begin constructing momentum is an efficient security valve.

In the end for Edwards, the plan for Muhammad is just to be a extra aggressive model of himself. Taking the wind out of Muhammad’s sails early, and slowing the tempo down, favors him considerably as he’s the superior technician of the 2, and it’s unclear if Muhammad has a deep sufficient bag of tips to seek out one thing else.

Picture by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Pictures

Paths to victory for Belal Muhammad at UFC 304

Muhammad is at present on a 10-fight unbeaten streak backed primarily by his mix of stress, wrestle-boxing, and cardio. It’s a potent mixture however one which received’t be sufficient to beat Edwards with out some modifications.

As mentioned above, Muhammad actually struggled with Edwards’s vary and aggression within the first matchup, and people are issues that persist for Muhammad throughout all opponents. Muhammad is a snowball rolling down hill however he does have to get rolling first, and if you happen to by no means let him out of first gear, his offense is lackluster. Muhammad can not let Edwards dictate the tempo and vary of the struggle or he’s misplaced earlier than the bout is even begun.

So how does he try this? Nicely, the primary half sounds easy however will be somewhat laborious: he has to just accept harm. Within the first struggle, Muhammad obtained caught at vary partly as a result of he merely didn’t like getting hit when he got here in. Nicely, powerful cookies. Getting hit is nobody’s concept of a very good time (OK, perhaps it’s for Justin Gaethje), but it surely’s the value of admission to this struggle as Edwards is larger, sooner, and has good footwork. And whereas it could suck to stroll headlong into offense, the reality is that sitting at vary is definitely worse, as a result of like Muhammad, Edwards doesn’t need to be pressured. Edwards needs to face in area and have a slow-paced kickboxing match. Muhammad can not acquiesce to that and hope to win.

As soon as Muhammad accepts that he’s going to must stroll by fireplace, the largest precedence is getting Edwards to the fence. Edwards is an excellent anti-wrestler however if you happen to put him close to the fence, it restricts his capability to create area, and smothering Edwards is the important thing for Muhammad to seek out constant success. To do that Muhammad goes to wish to double and triple-up his jab. The jab was Muhammad’s solely actual weapon of success within the first match and it’s essential on this one.

The final piece of the puzzle for Muhammad is the wrestling. Edwards is a superb defensive wrestler and good at standing up, however when we have now seen folks stymie him, it’s been with smothering high management. Kamaru Usman’s best success in opposition to Edwards got here from placing him alongside the fence and controlling him. Muhammad is just not that degree of wrestler or of management grappler, however he’s exceptionally well-conditioned and that counts for lots. Wrestle early, wrestle usually and make Edwards work from the opening bell, as a result of the identical photographs that may get stuffed within the first spherical will begin to land as Edwards slows down. The extra Muhammad could make Edwards work, the higher his probabilities because the struggle drags on.

X-Elements

The time.

This occasion takes place in Manchester, England and for some cause, the powers that be determined that regardless, it must occur on conventional U.S. pay-per-view occasions. That implies that when Edwards and Muhammad really make the stroll, will probably be round 5 a.m. native time. That may be a big departure from when most fighters are used to competing and will screw issues up for both or each males in the event that they aren’t correctly ready. Each males are professionals and clearly conscious of this heading into the bout, but when both of them slacked on this particular preparation, that’s an enormous benefit for the opposite come struggle evening (morning).

Prediction

As a lot as I like Muhammad as a fighter, this can be a powerful matchup for him. Edwards is larger, youthful, sooner, and has a wider vary of instruments than him. Furthermore, Muhammad doesn’t have the kind of high-powered offense that might a minimum of give him a gambler’s probability of touchdown one thing. It’s merely not who he’s, and Edwards is aware of that.

This struggle is extraordinarily prone to seem like each Leon Edwards struggle, a masterclass of vary and refined motion that isn’t broadly interesting to the general public as a result of there aren’t large, flashy moments. As an alternative, Edwards will merely outland Muhammad for a lot of the struggle and stroll away with one other clear however uninspiring choice.

Leon Edwards def. Belal Muhammad by way of unanimous choice (49-46, 49-46, 49-46).