2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES
MEN’S 400 INDIVIDUAL MEDLEY— BY THE NUMBERS:
- World File: 4:02.50 – Leon Marchand, France (2023)
- World Junior File: 4:10.02 – Ilya Borodin, Russia (2021)
- Olympic File: 4:03.84 – Michael Phelps, USA (2008)
- 2021 Olympic Champion: Chase Kalisz, USA – 4:09.42
There received’t be a lot preamble on this occasion as a lot of it was coated final summer time, however as a reminder, here’s a little little bit of final yr’s protection.
Leon Marchand of France received his second consecutive World Championships in Fukuoka, in a brand new World File time of 4:02.50. He not solely broke Michael Phelp’s longest and final document of 4:03.84, however he demolished it, being the primary swimmer underneath the 4:03 barrier.
Behind him had been the US’s Carson Foster (4:06.56) and Daiya Seto (4:09.41), who received the silver and bronze medals, respectively.
Getting into the Olympics, Marchand is the clear and apparent front-runner as he’s entered greater than 4 seconds away from his nearest competitors and is the one energetic swimmer to have been underneath 4:05.9. Nevertheless, because the previous has taught us, being the favourite on paper is not any assure to success and Marchand’s performances this yr is likely to be a glimmer of hope to his opponents.
“Marchand On”
Whereas atop the entry lists, which allowed entry instances relationship again to March 1st, 2023, this season, Marchand ranks eleventh on the planet and simply ninth amongst Olympic entrants. His time of 4:10.62 from the French Elite Championships did clock in as a season-best, surpassing the 4:11.21 he swam on the San Antonio cease of the Professional Swim Sequence, however was nowhere close to as quick or spectacular because the swims put up by his rivals.
| FLY | BACK | BREAST | FREE | TOTAL | |
| 2024 French Trials | 55.26 | 1:03.84 | 1:09.60 | 1:01.92 | 4:10.62 |
| 2023 Worlds Prelims | 54.27 | 1:02.97 | 1:11.95 | 1:01.69 | 4:10.88 |
| 2023 Worlds Finals (WR) | 54.66 | 1:01.98 | 1:07.64 | 58.22 | 4:02.50 |
But these instances shouldn’t be any trigger for main concern. Earlier than the World Championships in 2023, Marchand was 4:10.57 on the French Elite Championships and was 4:10.88 within the prelims in Fukuoka after which went on to interrupt the WR. Moreover, regardless of it being an Olympic yr, Marchand didn’t choose to redshirt his NCAA season. As an alternative, he helped lead ASU to its first title in program historical past.
In March, Marchand set new NCAA data within the 200 free, 500 free, and 200 breast, along with successful the 400 IM. He was additionally part of three NCAA-winning relays, two of which set NCAA data with the Frenchmen swimming the quickest 100-breast break up ever on the 4×100 Medley Relay.
Coaching underneath Phelps’ long-time coach Bob Bowman, Marchand has not solely introduced the 400 IM to new heights but in addition French Swimming. On the 2021 Olympics, France took residence only one swimming medal, Florent Manaudou’s silver from the 50 free, however on the 2023 World Championships, the French walked away with six medals, 4 of them gold and three of these 4 belonging to Marchand, who additionally claimed the highest prize within the 200 fly and 200 IM.
Whereas Marchand has three different particular person occasions to swim in Paris, with the 200 breast becoming a member of the aforementioned 200s, the 400 IM is the primary occasion on his plate, and no problems with fatigue ought to have any think about his try and win what’s going to probably be France’s first medal of the meet.
“Pumped Up Kalisz” – Foster the Swimmer
(picture: Jack Spitser)
Unlikely to dethrone Marchand however actually in a robust place to the rostrum are the American duo of Carson Foster and Chase Kalisz. Foster’s look in Paris might be a redemption, of types, after coming so shut in a number of occasions on the 2021 US Olympic Trials. After a heartbreaking third on this occasion three years in the past, Foster left nothing to likelihood as he attacked the race from the get-go and in the end completed first in a time of 4:07.64, a time that ranks him first on the planet this season by a margin of over a second.
Foster, who twice at World Championships has completed behind Marchand, finds himself in a well-recognized spot as he sits second within the entry lists together with his silver medal-winning efficiency from Fukuoka of 4:06.56.
The 2024 World Championships however, and extra on these later, Foster is probably going the one swimmer to have a shot of usurping Marchand. He’s the one different swimmer since Covid to have swum underneath 4:07, having finished so twice.
Nevertheless, Foster will not be the one energetic swimmer to have a PB underneath 4:07. Compatriot and future coaching accomplice at Texas, Kalisz, has a PB of 4:05.90 and within the hole between Phelps/Ryan Lochte and at the moment was one of many dominant swimmers within the occasion. He received silver within the occasion on the 2016 Olympics in 4:06.75 and improved one step on the rostrum to gold in 2021, taking the title in 4:09.42 forward of teammate and coaching accomplice Jay Litherland‘s 4:10.28.
His success has not been restricted to the Olympics, nevertheless, as he received 4 medals within the occasion on the World Championships, together with gold in 2017. The truth is, throughout the IM occasions, Kalisz has medaled at each worldwide meet the US has competed in since 2013 till final yr.
After claiming bronze (4:07.47) on the 2022 Worlds behind Marchand and Foster, Kalisz didn’t podium in Fukuoka. He completed 4th within the 400 in 4:10.23, virtually a full second again of third and simply .14 forward of fifth place.
But these outcomes don’t spell doom and gloom totally for Kalisz and his prospects at a 3rd Olympic medal. His efficiency on the US Trials, 4:09.39, was sooner than each his prelims and finals swims in Fukuoka, which could imply he’s again on monitor. Nevertheless, simply because Kalisz is healthier than he was final summer time, it doesn’t imply he’s the favourite for the bronze.
“Seto Fireplace to The Race”
Daiya Seto courtesy World Aquatics
Whereas Kalisz helped fill the hole left by Phelps and Lochte, he wasn’t alone as each Kosuke Hagino and Daiya Seto had been perennial medal winners within the occasion. Whereas Hagino has since retired from the game, Seto, who, like Kalisz, is 30 years outdated, remains to be swimming and poses an ideal risk to the American’s medal probabilities.
Like Kalisz, the Japanese swimmer has medaled (in both IM occasion) at each worldwide championship from 2013 on, excluding his residence Olympics, the place he didn’t make the ultimate within the 400 regardless of coming into as the highest seed. He completed ninth within the prelims, .32 away from tying for eighth.
On the 2022 Worlds, Seto completed sixth in 4:11.93 however rebounded at residence in 2023, taking the bronze in 4:09.41. Simply this previous February, Seto repeated his podium place, claiming bronze in 4:12.51.
In Fukuoka, Seto outsplit Kalisz on the final 50 by 1.25 (28.59 to 29.84) and turned what was a deficit of .43 right into a margin of victory of .82. Nevertheless, such heroic antics might not be sufficient to assist the veteran Japanese swimmer win one other medal as his compatriot Tomoyuki Matsushita employed an analogous tactic just lately coming residence in a blistering 27.38.
At Japan’s Olympic Trials, Seto completed 2nd in 4:10.84 behind Matsushita, however just lately overtook him on the planet rankings as Seto clocked a 4:09.68 on the Sette Colli Trophy meet in Rome only a month in the past and now sits seventh amongst the world this season.
Matsushita, who will flip 19 in the course of swimming parts of the Olympics, ranks two spots behind Seto because the ninth quickest this season. The teenager, who received the 2023 Junior World Championships in a then PB of 4:10.97, dropped a 27.38 final 50 to interrupt the meet document by almost a second and are available inside a second of the Junior World File.
The 18-year-old has since dropped that point right down to 4:10.04 and sits on the precipice of the sub-4:10 membership, an unique group of simply 22 swimmers, and whereas he has the chance to he nonetheless has an extended option to catch two of these membership members, each of whom are in prime place to medal.
“Don’t Dream It’s Over” – Crowded Home
Brendon Smith (picture: Jack Spitser)
The occasion is bound to be a crowded one. Regardless of there being simply 16 entrants, with no semifinals, any swimmer apart from in all probability Marchand and Foster must be sure that they put in a robust prelims swim.
On reverse sides of the 2023-2024 World Rankings however with residence nations very shut to 1 one other are New Zealand’s Lewis Clareburt and Australia’s Brendon Smith. Smith, who has a PB of 4:09.27, was one of many many surprises for the Australian crew in Tokyo. After posting the quickest time in prelims and setting a brand new Oceanian Swim File, Smith claimed bronze in 4:10.38, claiming the nation’s first medal of the meet.
Since then has helped the Australian males within the 4×200 free relay win silver in 2022 however has didn’t medal on this occasion, ending fifth in each 2022 (4:11.36) and 2023 (4:10.37). Nevertheless, regardless of sitting tenth within the World rankings and coming into because the ninth seed, Smith’s time from the Australian Trials of 4:10.18 is his fourth quickest time ever and sooner than each of his outcomes from the final two World Champs he has competed in.
credit score Fabio Cetti
Breaking out in 2019 with a bronze medal on the Gwangju Worlds, New Zealand’s Clareburt, like Smith, had struggled to copy that early success till just lately. After posting a nationwide document of 4:12.07 in 2019, Clareburt lowered it once more on the Olympics, swimming 4:09.49 within the prelims and sat 2nd heading into finals however fell to seventh as he stopped the clock at 4:11.22.
On the subsequent two Worlds, Clareburt would remaining in each however didn’t repeat that podium place. In 2022, he positioned 4th behind Kalisz in 4:10.98, and in 2023, he fell to sixth with a time of 4:11.29, and 2019 might have been a one-and-done till this February when the Kiwi climbed to the highest of the rostrum. Maybe studying to take issues slightly slower, Clareburt was fifth in prelims (4:13.61) however dropped the hammer within the finals, swimming 4:09.72 to say his first particular person gold at Worlds. Nevertheless, that point was sufficient for Clarburt as three months later, on the Sydney Open, he was the slimmest margin (.01) away from his PB and Nationwide & Oceanian document of 4:08.70 as he posted a then season main time of 4:08.71.
The New Zealand document of 4:08.70 comes from Clareburt’s 2022 Commonwealth Video games win over Smith and Duncan Scott, a subject that notably didn’t embody any English swimmers within the remaining.
“Dreamer” – Europe
Clareburt was not the one swimmer to remove {hardware} and confidence from the 2024 Worlds (I did point out that we might discuss it extra and hope it’s not an excessive amount of scrolling backwards and forwards).
Nice Britain’s Max Litchfield, who, exterior of a silver on the 2016 Quick Course Worlds, has by no means medaled on the worldwide stage, swam his quickest time on the Doha Worlds because the prelims of the 2021 Olympics. In Doha, Litchfield swam his option to a silver medal, overtaking Foster on the final 100 to cease the clock in 4:10.40, simply .20 slower than his eighth place prelims swim in Tokyo and sooner than his equal 4th place end within the remaining of 4:10.59. Coincidentally the identical place as in 2016, the place the Brit completed in 4th albeit in a slower time of 4:11.62.
Since then, the 29-year-old has solely gotten higher. He dropped a brand new private better of 4:09.14, bettering up his seven-year-old former better of 4:09.62 from the 2017 Worlds. The brand new mark additionally overtook the British nationwide document of 4:09.18 held by Duncan Scott, launching him up the world rankings. He now sits ranked third this season, with lower than two weeks till the occasion begins and is the fifteenth quickest performer of all time.
Litchfield was not alone in making the ultimate in Doha and being a risk to make the ultimate in Paris. Italy’s Alberto Razzetti, the nationwide document holder and Nineteenth-fastest performer ever, tied for fifth on the 2024 Worlds, stopping the clock in 4:13.05 however had just some months earlier damaged the nationwide document by swimming 4:09.29 on the Italian Open Championships and breaking Luca Marin‘s 16-year-old document.
Whereas Razzetti has by no means medaled on this occasion in a World Championships he did win the silver within the 200 fly and bronze within the 200 IM in Doha. Moreover, on the 2022 European Championships in Rome, the Italian received gold on this occasion, bettering upon his silver from 2020. Actually, a contender to the ultimate, Razzetti’s medal probabilities might line up in different occasions, however because the 4th quickest performer this season, he undoubtedly has the ability and talent to repeat and even higher his eighth place displaying from 2021, the place he completed in 4:11.32.
On the latest 2024 European Championships, three swimmers set themselves aside from the sector and swam their option to the highest of the World Rankings and into competition for the ultimate. Claiming gold in a brand new private greatest and nationwide document was Greece’s Apostolos Papastamos, whose 4:10.83 erased his personal almost five-year-old document of 4:11.93. In 2021, the Greek positioned 14th within the occasion, hitting the wall in 4:12.50.
Trying to comply with within the footsteps of two of their nation’s greats, Laszlo Cseh and David Verrasztro, the Hungarian pair of Balazs Hollo and Gabor Zombori stopped the clocked in 4:11.51 and 4:11,70 to say the remaining two different medals. The time was a PB for Zombori and was a robust return to type for Hollo, who was 4:10.87 in 2022, however each will probably must be proper round 4:10 to must remaining.
The Verdict
Regardless of Marchand’s reasonably lackluster efficiency on the French Trials, nothing means that he was unprepared for his alternative to shine in entrance of his residence nation. Greater than probably, the Frenchman was not absolutely rested for the meet and, greater than probably might rattle his world document within the finals. After Marchand, Foster appears to be a shoo-in for the silver after having completed in the identical spot at each the 2022 and 2023 Worlds except one thing drastic had been to occur.
After these two, the battle for bronze might be tight. Each Kalisz and Seto have higher PBs than Foster, however age could also be catching as much as them. Neither has damaged 4:07 this decade and whereas Seto was 4:07.92 in April of 2023, he was simply 4:09.41 at Worlds three months later. Whereas I detest splitting the pair, SwimSwam (principally me) really thinks that neither will take the bronze medal as New Zealand’s Clareburt appears to be like poised to earn his nation’s first medal on the Olympics since 1996 (except Erika Fairweather beats him to it). His consistency this season, being underneath 4:10 and being simply .01 off his PB, offers him a slight edge over the veteran pair.
After these 5, Max Litchfield appears to be like greatest positioned to make the ultimate, having already finished so each in 2016 and 2021. He might even contest with the aforementioned three for the bronze however would want to achieve even higher heights to take action, whereas Seto and Kalisz have the expertise of swimming within the 4:07 vary, and with these Video games probably their final they are going to do every thing of their energy to medal.
SWIMSWAM’S PICKS
Darkish Horse: Tristan Jankovics (CAN) – The OSU swimmer and native of Canada dropped boatloads of time on the Canadian Swimming Trials in Could, having first set a PB of 4:15.68 within the prelims after which dropping much more time within the finals to cease the clock in 4:11.74 clearing the 4:12.50 OQT within the course of. Simply .33 off the super-suited Canadian document, Jankovics, who positioned eighth behind Marchand on the 2024 NCAAs, might be in line to drop much more time and make the ultimate, being the primary Canadian to take action since 2008. No matter if he does make the ultimate, Jankovics, who’s the thirteenth seed, will make some historical past for Canada as he’s the primary entrant within the occasion for his nation since 2012.
