Late final month, I used this area to speak about a number of storylines to control for the second half of the 2024 Main League Baseball season. One of many major issues I mentioned was the Wild Card race for each leagues and the way it was nonetheless large open — particularly within the Nationwide League, the place the whole Postseason image included 12 of the 15 groups.
It’s been a number of weeks since then and when you may argue that that quantity has gone down from 12 to 10 since each the Cubs and the Reds didn’t precisely come out of the gates swinging within the second half, issues have tightened up significantly in any other case. A lot of the pleasure has come from the highest of the NL Wild Card race getting very attention-grabbing unexpectedly.
In case you had instructed most Atlanta Braves followers throughout Spring Coaching that their group would have been drawn right into a dogfight for the Wild Card, they most likely would’ve responded with “You imply the division, proper?” Certainly, whereas the Braves have been a strong choose to win the NL East as soon as once more this season, it will’ve been affordable to imagine that the Phillies may have given Atlanta a severe run for his or her cash when it got here to the divisional crown. Whereas the Phillies have certainly slowed down from the livid tempo that they have been on to begin the season, they’re nonetheless fairly massive favorites at this level to finish Atlanta’s run of divisional dominance and win their first divisional crown since 2011.
Nevertheless, the Braves now have larger issues to fret about apart from merely making a run to retain the divisional crown. Atlanta is now in a battle to easily make the Postseason. The hole between themselves and the NL Wild Card pack has shrunken to the purpose the place they’ve gone from having a snug lead and an 84 % shot at clinching a Wild Card spot (in keeping with FanGraphs) on July 11 to out of the blue having their probabilities go down practically 20 factors to 67 %. They enter Monday only one share level forward of the San Diego Padres for the primary Wild Card spot and solely half a sport forward of the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final. They’re simply 1.5 video games forward of the New York Mets who’re presently on the surface trying in.
In reality, the Mets even handed the Braves within the standings at one level after the break earlier than falling behind practically as rapidly. Nevertheless, it’s turn out to be clear that the Braves are probably going to have a significant battle on their palms to carry onto the highest Wild Card spot and might also be in a battle to easily make the Postseason. So, what occurred? How has this race gone from being practically a certain factor in Atlanta’s favor to out of the blue being a free-for-all the place even the Pittsburgh Pirates and the St. Louis Cardinals are only one good stretch of baseball away from having a severe shot, themselves?
For the Braves, it is come down to 2 main points: Accidents and an absence of constant offensive manufacturing. For all of the harm luck that the Braves have had in current seasons, they’ve had none of it right here in 2024. For reference’s sake, this is Atlanta’s lineup from Opening Day:
Now, this is how the Braves regarded 4 months later:
Evidently, it will’ve been miraculous for any group to keep up their lofty expectations with that a lot lineup turnover in any given season. As such, it is fairly simple to grasp why and the way an offense that was top-of-the-line to ever do it (within the common season, a minimum of) final season has out of the blue turn out to be a bunch that’s hitting .239/.303/.406 with simply 97 wRC+. The Braves are extraordinarily lucky that their pitching has been nice this season as a result of the offense has been middling at finest and is the one actual factor protecting them from falling utterly into the pack as a substitute of nonetheless being on the head in the interim. Atlanta’s been hovering round 9-10 video games over .500 since Might. Being 20-9 appears to be like nice in Might! Nevertheless, being 60-51, six video games behind within the division and in a cage battle for a Wild Card spot is not nice for a group that had the expectations that Atlanta had!
Atlanta’s continued sputtering has coincided with the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks waking up. In reality, with each San Diego and Arizona going 8-2 over their final 10 video games, they have not simply absolutely established themselves within the Wild Card dialog however they’ve additionally made issues a bit attention-grabbing the NL West race because the Los Angeles Dodgers have began slowing down, themselves. Whereas each the Padres and D-Backs are nonetheless very a lot outsiders for the division, they’ve completely performed themselves into rivalry.
A.J. Preller’s deadline dealings have been extraordinarily dangerous, as San Diego’s head baseball honcho determined to primarily empty the farm out with a view to enhance their bullpen. They’re 100% all in at this level and so they’re taking part in prefer it as properly. The Padres are the most popular group in baseball because the break (11-3), they’ve received 5 straight collection and look like firing on all cylinders proper now. Supervisor Mike Shildt is pushing all the correct buttons and he’s been doing a really strong job of using the improved bullpen with a view to shorten the video games.
With a bullpen already filled with fearsome arms like Robert Suarez and Jeremiah Estrada and the additions of July NL Reliever of the Month Tanner Scott, Jason Adam, and Bryan Hoeing, this isn’t a group that you simply need to fall behind towards after six innings. With their high-powered offense (sporting the Sixth-best group wRC+ in baseball), they’re additionally a group that no one would need to see in October if they’ll proceed this tempo and lock down a Postseason berth.
The identical goes for the Diamondbacks, who’ve lastly hit their stride after spending most of this season struggling — it is virtually as in the event that they’re the defending Nationwide League Champions, proper? Arizona has overcome harm problems with their very own and have been slowly-but-surely clawing their approach again into the playoff dialog. Arizona’s offense is simply as high-powered as San Diego’s (they’ve the Seventh-best group wRC+ in MLB and are only one level behind San Diego in that regard) and it certain helps when you could have Corbin Carroll showing to get up as guys like NL MVP candidate Ketel Marte, Christian Walker and Joc Pederson have been mashing all season. You already know issues are going properly once you’re in a position to begin a sport like this:
In the meantime on the surface trying in on the Wild Card spots, the New York Mets are nonetheless hanging round. They’ve positively slowed down since the brief-but-magical run with Grimace however they’re just one.5 video games out of a Wild Card spot, to allow them to’t be counted out by any means. The Pittsburgh Pirates aren’t precisely the image of consistency however they’re hanging proper on in there at a sport over .500 and we’re seeing proper now whether or not or not they will be severe contenders after having simply seen the Diamondbacks and are set to begin taking part in the Padres on Tuesday. The St. Louis Cardinals are hoping that getting a minimum of a part of the ol’ band again collectively can revive a few of that previous satan magic that all of us bear in mind and even the San Francisco Giants nonetheless have a bit little bit of life left after Blake Snell’s no-hitter over the weekend.
There’s nonetheless loads left to play for for almost all of groups within the Nationwide League. The NL Wild Card race figures to be notably fascinating — we figured it will be as such as soon as baseball returned from the break and to date this race has lived as much as the billing. Any sizzling streak or stoop from any of those aforementioned groups may have a huge effect on the Postseason race and it is clear that issues are nonetheless very a lot up within the air as we get into the enterprise finish of this season.
