It wasn’t too way back that Russell Wilson was an albatross to the Denver Broncos and they benched him in an effort to not must pay him more cash sooner or later. Now after a redemptive season with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Wilson is in line to money in once more.
Wilson is already the fourth-highest paid participant in NFL historical past and even a mediocre deal would permit him to move Tom Brady for third on the record.
However how do you identify a market worth for Wilson, a participant who was paid the league’s minimal wage by the Steelers in 2024 whereas his former crew foot the invoice? Do you go off his earlier contract, which the Broncos had been prepared to eat simply to eliminate him, or do one thing else?
Comparable ceilings for a brand new Russell Wilson contract
Let’s begin with Wilson’s age. The QB simply turned 36 this season, so he received’t be signing a long-term extension on the high of the market like the fellows of their 20s did over the previous few offseasons. He’s extra in keeping with offers for Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Kirk Cousins. None of them are within the high 10 when it comes to common compensation per 12 months.
Russell Wilson’s 2022 deal
- Age at signing: 34
- Size: 5 years
- Common cash: $48.5 million/season
- Totally assured: $124 million (first three seasons)
- More information: Broncos additionally despatched commerce compensation to Seahawks
- 2021 stats: 64.8% completions, 7.8 yards per try, 222.4 yards per recreation, 103.1 ranking (Professional Bowl)
Matthew Stafford’s 2022 deal
- Age at signing: 34
- Size: 4 years
- Common cash: $40 million/season ($44.5 million/12 months first two seasons)
- Totally assured: $63 million (first two years $89 million)
- More information: $57 million rolling assure in 2023 offseason for 2024 season
- 2021 stats: 67% completions, 8.1 yards per try, 287.4 yards per recreation, 102.8 ranking
Aaron Rodgers’ 2023 deal
- Age at signing: 39
- Size: Three years
- Common cash: $37.5 million/season
- Totally assured: $75 million (first two years)
- More information: Jets needed to ship commerce compensation to Inexperienced Bay
- 2022 stats: 64.6% completions, 6.8 yards per try, 217.4 yards per recreation, 91.1 ranking (MVP in 2020 and 2021)
Kirk Cousins’ 2024 deal
- Age at begin of season: 36
- Size: 4 years
- Common cash: $45 million/season
- Totally assured: $90 million (first two years)
- More information: Was the one one of many three who who signed as a free agent
- 2023 stats: 69.5% completions, 7.5 yards per try, 291.4 yards per recreation, 103.8 ranking (solely performed 8 video games as a result of Achilles damage)
Russell Wilson’s present numbers
- Age at signing: 36
- 2024 stats (as of this writing): 64.7% completions, 8.1 yards per try, 239 yards per recreation, 103 ranking
Potential takeaways from the 4 contracts
Wilson’s 2024 numbers line up with these different older quarterbacks, so in case you take these 4 contract particulars and piece them collectively, you’re taking a look at two years assured at round $40-$45 million per 12 months with one or two crew possibility years tacked on the tip. It could tick barely larger on common since, like Cousins, Wilson will probably be probably hitting the free-agent market.
Let’s even be extremely clear — the one deal on this record that labored out for the crew that signed it was the Stafford deal. To get there, the Rams needed to reside by means of a really down 2022 season, too.
Comparable flooring for a brand new Russell Wilson contract
Wilson goes to be signed to start out someplace, in order that takes the ultra-low {dollars} off the desk. That establishes his absolute flooring at Jacoby Brissett bridge quarterback degree of $8 million, however we aren’t even going to interrupt that out as a result of it’s unrealistically low.
Geno Smith’s 2023 deal
- Age at signing: 33
- Size: Three years
- Common cash: $25 million/season
- Totally assured: $27.3 million (first 12 months solely)
- More information: Performed in 2022 on a one-year, $3.5 million deal in Seattle.
- 2022 stats: 69.8% completions, 7.5 yards per try, 251.9 yards per recreation, 100.9 ranking
Kirk Cousins’ 2022 deal
- Age at begin of season: 36
- Size: One season
- Common cash: $35 million/season
- Totally assured: $35 million
- More information: He was already signed for 2022, so this contract added a totally assured 2023 12 months, ostensibly making it a two-year, $70 million totally assured contract.
- 2021 stats: 66.3% completions, 7.5 yards per try, 263.8 yards per recreation, 103.1 ranking (Professional Bowl)
Potential takeaways from the 2 contracts
Smith coming off his personal reclamation challenge in Seattle needed to stay round in 2023, particularly as a result of there was ample alternative within the NFL Draft for groups to pick QBs. Three of the highest 4 picks had been quarterback whereas one other was taken 33 general. This firmly established the center class of quarterbacks, a spot into which Baker Mayfield has subsequently slotted however he’s a lot youthful.
With the Cousins deal, he wasn’t a real free agent and he was searching for a number of years of totally assured cash. A two-year, $70 million deal for Wilson would most likely make the brand new crew fairly comfortable.
That makes absolutely the flooring for Wilson the Smith contract at $25 million per season, however with Wilson’s way more established observe file, I believe it’s cheap to suppose he’s going to make not less than Cousins/Vikings cash.
What’s the quarterback market going to appear like?
The QB market this offseason goes to be completely fascinating.
Which groups could possibly be on the beginning QB-needy record?
Shall we say the 49ers are okay holding Brock Purdy regardless of his down 12 months and the Panthers keep on with the glimpses they’ve seen from Bryce Younger. Aaron Rodgers has stated he desires to be again and with the Jets, however their scenario is so up within the air, I wish to preserve them on right here.
2025 NFL Draft prospects at quarterback
In 2024, the NFL Draft noticed a number of gamers taken within the high 12 picks however in 2025, the NFL Draft appears to be like fairly slim. There might solely be one QB taken within the first spherical, so if groups need a new quarterback, they must have a look at free brokers.
With six groups searching for a beginning quarterback with one NFL Draft prospect able to entering into the position (and it’s going to be argued he wants some seasoning, anyway).
2025 NFL free agent quarterbacks class
There will probably be not less than some competitors on the free agent market alongside Wilson. If the Jets want a quarterback, Aaron Rodgers had been theoretically be obtainable after a launch, so we’re going to put him on right here. Some actually fascinating starting-level choices right here.
Listed here are the present free brokers plus Rodgers:
- Aaron Rodgers
- Sam Darnold
- Justin Fields
- Joe Flacco
- Jameis Winston
- Jimmy Garoppolo
You may additionally see a Kirk Cousins on the commerce market alongside Bryce Younger, Gardner Minshew, or Aiden O’Connell.
On this record, who would you are taking over the way in which Wilson has performed in 2024? The record most likely begins and ends with Darnold in Minnesota’s QB-friendly system with three excellent receiving weapons and a operating recreation.
Contract projection for Russell Wilson within the 2025 offseason
Three years, $135 million
Together with two years, $95 million assured
That is larger than I used to be anticipating to go after I began writing this text, however I believe the shortage of medium-end starters within the draft and free agent markets goes to work in Wilson’s favor and he’s going to be the cream of the crop.
The Steelers have loads of cap house to get this performed as a result of they had been prepping their roster for an eventual Kenny Pickett extension after drafting him excessive after which they solely paid Wilson $1.2 million in 2024. If these two sides can come collectively on language, it looks like a no brainer.
Wilson visited with the Giants within the 2024 offseason and if Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen are given one other 12 months, they’ll need a longtime starter. The identical might be stated for Tom Telesco and the las Vegas Raiders, although they might have an extended time horizon on desperation with Tom Brady entering into an organizational position.
The $95 million assured would finally put him over $400 million for his profession, and into not less than third place on the profession incomes record behind Rodgers and Stafford. Cousins is nipping at his heels in the mean time.
It’s clear he’s going to have suitors this offseason and can money in.
