Notice: I made a decision to spotlight the names of two Ukrainian gymnasts featured on this article. On the backside of this text is an announcement on Ukraine explaining why I did this.
This text is my finest try to find out who was essentially the most dominant gymnast ever in junior competitors within the historical past of ladies’s creative gymnastics (WAG). Not like different initiatives the place I’ve introduced information previously, on this event I need to emphasize that the methodology is probably not the very best and the ultimate outcomes shouldn’t be taken too significantly. Quite, this information is supposed to offer solely a enjoyable perception on which gymnasts achieved essentially the most success as juniors and isn’t to be taken as a real reflection of how all juniors evaluate to one another.
The rankings are as follows:
11 Factors: Svetlana Boginskaya
9 Factors: Viktoria Komova
8 Factors: Tamara Lazakovich
7 Factors: Ecaterina Szabo
6 Factors: Alexandra Marinescu, Daniela Silivas, Elena Levochkina, Giorgia Villa, Svetlana Ivanova
5 Factors: Armine Barutyan, Elena Gurova, Galina Ionas, Karin Janz
4 Factors: Aliya Mustafina, Amelie Morgan, Cristina Bontas, Elena Brazhnikova, Elena Eremina, Kana Yamawaki, Laurie Hernandez, Lavinia Agache, Natalia Karamushka, Rusudan Sikharulidze
The total checklist rating the outcomes of 190 complete juniors could be discovered right here.
To elucidate the methodology:
I solely used the outcomes from 5 worldwide competitions. I felt it was unfair to make use of home outcomes on the Nationwide Championships degree as a result of totally different WAG packages have various levels of issue on the home degree.
The 5 competitions in query are Druzhba, Worldwide Junior Championships, Junior European Championships, Youth Olympic Video games, and Junior World Championships. The historic significance of those 5 occasions and why I maintain them in excessive regard was a subject I’ve lined in a earlier article.
Utilizing these 5 competitions as a benchmark creates an enormous bias in favor of European and Japanese gymnasts. That is the rationale for my disclaimer within the introduction of the article that these outcomes aren’t to be taken too significantly. There have been few choices to supply a statistical system that didn’t characteristic a bias in favor of 1 specific area, period, or program.
Notice: Japan was the everlasting host of the Worldwide Junior Championships which is why Japanese gymnasts carry out exceptionally nicely at this competitors and thus the info is skewed of their favor.
One other main impediment is that some iconic gymnasts deliberately select to not take part in excessive profile junior competitions or few junior excessive profile competitions existed in her period. Essentially the most notable instance of that is Nadia Comaneci who competed in a number of dozen competitions as a junior throughout a four-year interval and received almost all of them. However Nadia solely sometimes competed in a significant junior competitors. After simply trouncing the highest juniors as a 12 year-old, Nadia spent the majority of her junior profession competing in opposition to senior-aged gymnasts in competitions that supplied stronger aggressive fields and higher ready her for the 1976 Olympics.
One other concern with the outcomes was together with the Junior European Championships whereas excluding all different continental championships. This was carried out as a result of the Junior European Championships are nicely documented with an entire set of outcomes going again to the Nineteen Seventies, in addition to having outcomes the place one nation didn’t overwhelmingly dominate the ultimate standings as China and america are likely to do with their respective continental championships.
The info itself counts solely medals received within the All-Round at these 5 competitions, it then makes use of my “factors” system the place I award 3-points for a gold medal, 2-points for silver, and one level for bronze. Within the case of a tie each gymnasts get the total level complete.
In a second set of knowledge, I did one thing that I’ve by no means carried out earlier than. Whereas a gymnast in senior competitors can theoretically compete in an infinite variety of Olympics and World Championships (insert Oksana Chusovitina joke right here), that’s not the case in a junior competitors. Most juniors have such brief careers, they usually seem in just one main junior competitors on the worldwide degree earlier than age limits render them ineligible.
In my information solely 16.8% of All-Round medalists in junior competitors received All-Round medals in two totally different competitions. Whereas on the senior degree that determine is considerably increased at 38.1% of All-Round medalists conducting the identical feat.
To account for this, I created a second set of knowledge the place I took the “factors” information and added a multiplier system the place I multiplied the variety of factors every WAG has by the variety of totally different competitions she received an All-Round medal at. Successful an All-Round bronze in two totally different competitions is thus superior to successful an All-Round gold medal in only one competitors.
The rationale for this was that Olga Mostepanova received two All-Round medals at Druzhba and the Junior European Championships that are the 2 most tough junior competitions to win an All-Round medal at. However she was decrease within the rankings than gymnasts who received solely a single All-Round gold medal on the Worldwide Junior Championships which generally has a weaker aggressive area.
For that reason, I felt a multiplier was essential to rectify this disparity and provides a extra correct reflection as to who the very best juniors in WAG historical past really had been. On the junior degree amount is usually a greater indicator of future success than high quality. In the event you had been to decide on between a junior gymnast who has two All-Round bronze medals or one with simply single All-Round gold medal, the gymnast with extra medals (of decrease worth) is statistically extra prone to obtain success on the senior degree.
Out of 190 gymnasts within the information, 32 of them received All-Round medals in a number of junior-level competitions and thus gained spots because of the multiplier rule. Of these 32 gymnasts, 72% of them went on to win medals on the senior degree in World Championships and/or Olympic competitors. Of the 28% who didn’t, almost all of them had been Soviet juniors who failed to take action solely as a result of the USSR program had a lot depth they had been prevented from showing in a significant senior-level competitors.
It could’t be emphasised sufficient that it isn’t the kind of medal a junior gymnast wins, however how usually she is ready to be able to win medals that finest signifies whether or not she’s going to grow to be a future star. Therefore the rationale I utilized the multiplier rule and why I really feel it’s a important enchancment.
The info with the multiplier rule included could be discovered right here.
Household Relations
There are solely 4 Bulgarian gymnasts within the information out of a complete of 190 gymnasts. However for 2 of these 4, they’re mom/daughter. The gymnasts in query are Maya Blagoeva and Silvia Mitova.
There may be one different “household relation” within the information. Russian gymnasts Natalia Ziganshina and her sister Gulnara Ziganshina each received junior All-Round medals.
Viktoria Komova really was one of many strongest juniors the game had seen in many years and I hope this text gives higher understanding as to why she was so extremely touted getting into the 2011 World Championships and 2012 Olympics.
Concluding Ideas
Of the 4 highest rating junior gymnasts on this information, all 4 of them achieved main success in senior competitors. All 4 of them (Komova, Boginskaya, Lazakovich, and Szabo) received an All-Round medal on the Olympics and mix for 16 complete Olympic medals.
I’m strongly contemplating increasing the info to incorporate Junior medals received in Occasion Finals in addition to upgrading Jesolo to grow to be the sixth “main” junior competitors.
Assertion on Ukraine
This text was created as a direct response because of the outbreak of struggle in Ukraine. There are two Soviet-Ukrainian gymnasts who had been excessive rating juniors that hail from cities which have been deeply impacted by the preventing. The primary is Svetlana Ivanova who presently lives in Germany, however is from Mariupol. The opposite is Natalia Karamushka who’s from Kharkiv and presently lives there.
These two cities have borne the worst of the preventing. Kharkiv is positioned simply 20 miles from the Russian border. Regardless of struggling heavy preventing from virtually the very first day of the struggle, remarkably it continues to carry out. I’ve no data concerning Natalia Karamushka’s present whereabouts or standing.
Mariupol is the worst place to be in all of Ukraine proper now. The town has been encircled and reduce off from the remainder of Ukraine. It’s presently experiencing a brutal siege that has triggered a humanitarian disaster ensuing within the deaths of a whole bunch of civilians every day. Whereas Svetlana Ivanova is secure in Germany, she has been unable to contact her household in Mariupol for the reason that siege started ten days in the past. Kharkiv is town the place Ukrainians have been struggling the longest. Muripol is town the place Ukrainians have been struggling the worst.
Because of these developments, Natalia Karamushka and Svetlana Ivanova have been on my thoughts as of late. Which has since given me the inspiration to speak about their standing as excessive rating juniors and I wished to supply an article that supplied the right context as to simply how profitable these two gymnasts had been, the cities they characterize, and the nation they name residence.
