Mohagher Iqbal, chief negotiator of the Moro Islamic Liberation Entrance (MILF) and Minister of Fundamental, Increased, and Technical Schooling, acknowledged that Moro rebels won’t decommission their remaining arms till all circumstances of the peace settlement are fulfilled. He remarked in an interview with Kyodo Information in September that “little or no has been delivered by the federal government.”
Iqbal’s declaration means the MILF will preserve their weapons till the Might 2025 polls, which can be the primary parliamentary election within the Bangsamoro Autonomous Area in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). The yardstick for figuring out what constitutes “sufficient” within the decommissioning course of seems to be a shifting normal, understood primarily by the MILF.
The issue of illicit weapons and their use just isn’t restricted to the Bangsamoro area; it’s pervasive all through the nation. The Philippine Nationwide Police recorded a staggering 10,936 gun-related incidents between 2022 and the primary quarter of 2024, highlighting the urgency of addressing this essential difficulty. The newest Battle Alert report confirmed 5,028 violent incidents because of illicit weapons from 2011 to 2023. This accounts for practically 84 % of the entire incidents throughout battle causes, and 96 % of deaths.
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A complete of 11,672 folks have been killed in 16,288 violent incidents because of different causes involving unlawful weapons. On common, three individuals die every day from gun-related violence. Within the Bangsamoro, most capturing incidents occurred in Maguindanao, the political heart of the BARMM, and the place the primary navy bases of the MILF-BIAF are situated.
This battle image foreshadows the violence that would occur within the Bangsamoro area within the 2025 political battle. Though Iqbal provides assurance that “the MILF won’t use its weapons to terrorize voters,” there is no such thing as a assure that they received’t reply if attacked by one other armed group or political rival. The MILF nonetheless has in its arsenal the remaining un-decommissioned arms excluded from the decommissioning program, categorized as weapons personally owned by MILF commanders, combatants, and their households. The entire quantity stays undisclosed, even to their peace companions.
To mitigate the chance of possible ballot violence, a number of measures could be applied on the native, regional, and nationwide ranges.
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One, it’s pressing to implement stricter gun management to curtail the proliferation of unlawful firearms. Some native authorities models have been on the forefront of those efforts, with Basilan having a program to stencil and register unfastened firearms in 2023. MILF chair and BARMM chief minister Ahod “Al Haj Murad” Ebrahim himself acknowledged this system’s potential to bolster safety within the area and help the broader goals of disarmament and transition.
It’s within the MILF’s finest curiosity to keep away from involvement in gun-related violence. They will uphold the rule of regulation and peaceable governance by finishing the ultimate section of the decommissioning course of; facilitating the stock of firearms excluded from the decommissioning course of as preliminary step to legitimize possession, possession and carrying of weapons, and self-discipline its troops. A critical concern is the involvement of MILF commanders and members in violent incidents—in inner schisms and feuds with different clans and id teams, such because the non-Moro indigenous peoples. Battle Alert’s 13-year panel knowledge from 2011 to 2023 recorded MILF-affiliated people concerned in 433 violent incidents and 494 deaths.
Two, the Fee on Elections ought to contemplate extending the gun ban past election day. The PNP has echoed this advice, stressing the significance of a gun ban to discourage violence earlier than, throughout, and after the 2025 polls. The deadliest instance of election-related violence is the November 2009 Ampatuan bloodbath, which occurred in the course of the submitting of candidacy. The 2023 Barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan elections, thought to be the deadliest in Bangsamoro historical past, additionally function a stark reminder of the persistent difficulty of gun-related violence.
Third, multistakeholder motion is paramount, together with continued autonomous monitoring of gun-related violence to supply essential proof to form peace-building apply, and to help policymaking on curbing such violence. Media shops should collaborate to forestall the unfold of pretend information that would ignite gun-related violence.
Lastly, communities and clans should work collectively to mediate violent feuds in a well timed method to discourage revenge and stop polarization throughout elections, a powder keg for armed clashes.
Iqbal’s declaration, “We won’t use our weapons to terrorize voters,” may very well be a unifying slogan amongst political events within the 2025 elections. A public covenant based mostly on this dedication could be a strong assertion of intent, fostering a local weather of belief and safety because the elections draw close to.
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Ed Quitoriano is senior adviser of the Council for Local weather and Battle Motion-Asia and principal marketing consultant of Visus Consulting.
