Fantasy soccer 2024: Remainder of season rankings for rookie quarterbacks

I used to be excited to jot down my mid-season fantasy breakdown and rest-of-season (ROS) rankings column on the rookie quarterbacks, however then they put up a collective stinker on Sunday. Test that—Bo Nix was OK (16.1 fantasy factors), however Drake Maye (12.8), Jayden Daniels (8.6), and Caleb Williams (6.3) didn’t do a lot to assist fantasy managers win this week, to not point out that Maye was the one one whose group received (taking part in the Bears, so it was going to be onerous for all 4 to lose). Oh nicely, I’m writing the column anyway. You possibly can’t cease me.

Final week, I wrote the same column overlaying the rookie broad receivers. These are follow-ups to my preseason columns exploring the fantasy prospects of the rookie quarterbacks and receivers.

A document six QBs have been taken within the first 12 picks of the 2024 NFL draft. Three of the six (#1 Williams, #2 Daniels, and #12 Nix) have been opening-day starters. Maye (#3) began the season because the Patriots’ backup however took over because the starter in Week 6. J.J. McCarthy (#10) suffered a season-ending harm in July and Michael Penix, Jr. (#8) has thrown only one move this season, as he’s caught behind Kirk Cousins. Spencer Rattler, a fifth spherical decide and the subsequent QB taken after Nix, obtained an opportunity to begin when Derek Carr missed time, and it wasn’t fairly. We’ve obtained 4 QBs to debate.

We’ll study much more about this class within the coming years and it’s too early to guage it now. One factor is abundantly clear although. For the second straight 12 months, the #2 decide is taking part in worlds higher than the #1 decide. Extra on them in a minute.

2024 marked the fourth time in six years that a minimum of 5 QBs went in Spherical 1. Let’s do a fast recap. The 2018 class (Spherical 1: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, and Lamar Jackson) began slowly however has turned out to be excellent. The 2020 class (Spherical 1: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Jordan Love; Spherical 2: Jalen Hurts) can be wonderful, and all 5 QBs are beginning for the group that drafted them after getting bank-breaking second contracts. The chances of hitting that five-leg parlay are staggering, as we’re about to see.

Enjoyable fantasy truth: 5 of the highest six scoring QBs on the season are from one among these two courses. The 2021 class is one other story although, and a sobering reminder {that a} respectable portion of highly-touted faculty QBs find yourself being busts. 5 QBs have been taken within the first 15 picks of that draft, and three seasons later, just one (Trevor Lawrence) began on opening day, and he’s additionally the one one who’s nonetheless with the group that drafted him. And let’s be trustworthy—he hasn’t precisely been the prince that was promised.

We don’t know what the 2024 class will quantity to down the street, however we all know what it’s after 10 weeks and as we head in the direction of the fantasy playoffs. It’s a combined bag, as you’d anticipate. However regardless of what we noticed from the group this week, there’s loads of upside that fantasy managers want to think about.

Let’s get to it. I’ll checklist the rookie QBs within the order that I’d wish to roster them for ROS, and on the finish I’ll take an informed guess at the place they’ll be drafted subsequent season.

All rankings and fantasy level totals referenced are by way of Week 10 until indicated.

Group 1: Set it and overlook it

1. Jayden Daniels (present total rank: QB7, 19.2 fantasy factors per sport (FPPG))

These numbers embody a sport the place Daniels left early with bruised ribs. Take that sport out and he’s the QB5, at 21.1 FPPG. It’s been a very long time since a rookie QB lit it up like this and Daniels sits alone on this tier. Can I take a victory lap? I used to be extraordinarily excessive on him within the preseason and advised anybody who would pay attention that he was a real dual-threat and was the rookie QB you wished. He’s been all that after which some, and thru 10 weeks he’s the runaway favourite for offensive rookie of the 12 months. The Commanders are a serious shock at 7-3 and he’s an enormous a part of their resurgence underneath new Head Coach Dan Quinn.

Right here’s what I wrote in my summer season column: “I’ve Daniels ranked as QB11 and I’m beginning to assume even that’s somewhat too low. I like the stable flooring and excessive ceiling you’re getting at his eighth or ninth spherical draft worth.” The speeding has cemented his flooring, whereas the passing prowess has been a pleasant shock. A few of his and the Commanders’ effectivity metrics early within the season have been mind-boggling. He’s cooled off, which was to be anticipated, however his passing numbers are nonetheless wonderful and particularly for a rookie.

One observe of warning: His schedule, which has been favorable, will get more durable down the stretch (it’s the ninth hardest based mostly on fantasy factors allowed). He struggled in Week 10 in opposition to a tricky Steelers’ protection, and he will get the Eagles and their surging protection this Thursday on a brief week. Nonetheless, I believe he’s entered must-start territory and as of now I wouldn’t draw back from him in any of his remaining matchups.

Picture by David Eulitt/Getty Photographs

Group 2: Combine and Match

2. Bo Nix (present total rank: QB12, 17.2 FPPG)

This was a detailed name between Nix and Maye, however I’m going with the participant within the higher total state of affairs, plus Nix has the sting in sport expertise and remaining schedule. Nix was the final and least heralded of the six QBs taken within the first spherical, has been a really nice shock up to now. He’s proved the critics incorrect up to now, as he’s been extra than simply competent—he’s been good, each in actuality and for fantasy. For individuals who grabbed him early off the waiver wire, nicely performed. Enjoyable truth: He’s scored extra FPPG than Patrick Mahomes (who he went toe-to-toe with on Sunday, and solely misplaced as a result of the Chiefs seem poised to win 18 straight video games that might’ve gone both means). He’s additionally scored extra FPPG than very succesful veterans Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott…the checklist goes on.

A part of that success has been from some shocking upside as a runner. He has 290 speeding yards and 4 speeding TDs on the season. He has thrived in simpler matchups and struggled at instances in opposition to higher defenses, in order that’s one thing to look at. The Broncos have respectable sufficient weapons, and he’s obtained Sean Payton teaching him, so the general state of affairs is favorable. For those who’ve obtained him rostered in a Superflex, he’s a stable QB2 most weeks, and I believe you’ll be able to spot-start him as wanted in a 1-QB league. He’s obtained the seventh best remaining schedule amongst QBs, together with some good playoff matchups.

3. Drake Maye (present total rank: QB15, 16.9 FPPG)

Like Nix, Maye has been sneaky-good as a starter, and a pleasant waiver wire discover. Within the 5 video games he has began and completed, he’s obtained three Prime-12 weekly finishes, and hasn’t completed with lower than 11.5 fantasy factors. He’s proving to be a legit dual-threat, and people speeding factors add up. He’s additionally on a below-average group that’s typically trailing—one other plus for fantasy.

There are additionally some negatives along with his state of affairs: His offensive line is porous, his non-descript receiver group lacks playmakers, and I’ve obtained some questions in regards to the teaching workers. However he’s been making do and can solely get higher with extra expertise. He’s a really playable QB2 for Superflex ROS, with some streaming upside. His remaining schedule is respectable, too.

Picture by Michael Reaves/Getty Photographs

Group 3: Streamer as wanted, wait and see

4. Caleb Williams (present total rank: QB25, 14 FPPG)

It’s been a story of three seasons up to now for Williams: A sluggish begin, a short surge, after which a drastic drop. I used to be a lot decrease than consensus on Williams within the preseason (I had him as QB17, his ADP was QB11), and I assumed the hype prepare was shifting too quick and that he was going to wish time to regulate from the faculty sport and determine it out. Williams did have a few excellent video games proper earlier than Chicago’s Bye (in opposition to the Panthers and Jaguars, who’re among the many most toothless cats you’re going to see), however the backside line is that he’s been very inconsistent, and steadily off-target as a thrower. Test that, he has been constant the final three weeks – persistently dangerous.

And that’s been a part of an total group funk. Da Bears have seen their season start to crumble since Daniels beat them on a Hail Mary that didn’t even attain the top zone. Within the two video games since that crushing loss, they haven’t scored a TD throughout 22 possessions. Williams hasn’t cracked 10 fantasy factors or thrown a TD move (or run for a TD) within the final three contests. His completion share and yardage totals have cratered as nicely. He presently sits 32^nd in completion share and 28^th in QBR and Score amongst qualifying QBs. His rankings within the superior metrics (issues like uncatchable passes, off-target throws, and so on.) are simply as dangerous. He additionally leads the league with 38 sacks taken and is holding onto the ball too lengthy. I’ll cease there.

The pondering within the preseason was that he was touchdown in one of the best state of affairs of the rookie QBs, given the Bears’ ability place gamers, nevertheless it hasn’t labored out that means. The offensive line is a multitude, and the teaching workers, which is able to probably be gone after this season, doesn’t get excessive marks. I wouldn’t begin Williams proper now, even in higher matchups. It’s means too early to jot down him off, and he’s proven a number of the improvisational playmaking capacity that made him such an attractive prospect. However the state of affairs is ugly in the intervening time, and no one needs ugly in a fantasy lineup.

Picture by Michael Reaves/Getty Photographs

2025 Fantasy Outlook

Projecting the Common Draft Place (ADP) of those 4 QBs for subsequent season is less complicated than it’s for the WRs. I’ll assume Penix will go into subsequent season because the Falcons’ backup, and I received’t make any assumption about McCarthy. Clearly, teaching and personnel modifications will occur, which is able to impression the QBs. However based mostly on what we all know no, that is how I see it.

How QBs are drafted varies considerably between 1-QB and 2-QB leagues/Superflex codecs, so fairly than making an attempt to forecast draft rounds, I’ll take a shot at forecasting ADP. The under is for 12-Group redraft leagues:

Jayden Daniels, ADP: QB5
Drake Maye, ADP: QB15
Bo Nix, ADP: QB16
Caleb Williams, ADP: QB20
J.J. McCarthy: N/A
Undrafted (waiver wire): Michael Penix, Jr. and Spencer Rattler

That’s all I’ve obtained. I can see the 2025 QB class coming over the horizon, however that’s one other story for an additional day.

Take a look at my weekly fantasy preview/Begin-sit every Thursday, and my weekly fantasy waiver wire column every Monday, at SBNation sister website Large Blue View.