F1 Canadian Grand Prix: Can George Russell maintain off Max Verstappen?

Final season solely three drivers gained a Method 1 Grand Prix: Max Verstappen, Sergio Pérez, and Carlos Sainz Jr.

Right now’s Canadian Grand Prix is the ninth Grand Prix of the season and 4 drivers — Verstappen, Sainz, Lando Norris, and Charles Leclerc — have reached the highest step of the rostrum. That mere reality speaks to the compacted area this 12 months, notably on the pointy finish of the grid, and the potential title struggle that’s rising in F1.

Can George Russell made it 5?

Russell’s gorgeous efficiency in qualifying, the place and Verstappen posted the very same time in Q3 however the Mercedes driver secured pole place by placing in his lap first, offers him an opportunity at his first win of the 2024 marketing campaign. However what is going to it take to carry off the three-time Drivers’ Champion, who begins alongside him?

A little bit of technique, and maybe a little bit of luck, in response to the Mercedes driver.

“I feel it’s going to be a tricky race for everyone, to be trustworthy. Graining appears to be a difficulty. And this new monitor floor, no person actually is aware of the way it’s going to pan out. However we’ve obtained to go for victory,” mentioned Russell following qualifying on Saturday.

“The automotive is genuinely actually, actually quick in the intervening time. However it’s going to be a protracted race, I feel. As quickly as you fall off that cliff of the [tires] tomorrow, it’s going to be actually tough to recuperate,” added Russell. “So, yeah, it may very well be a little bit of a strategic recreation. Perhaps not as excessive as we noticed in Monaco final week, however possibly one thing comparable.”

Right here is the complete beginning grid, and a few extra questions that shall be answered later at this time:

Can Max Verstappen thunder to the entrance?

Over the previous few F1 seasons, one of the uncomfortable positions within the sport has been P1 … when you don’t have anything however Max Verstappen in your rear-view mirrors.

That would be the scene for Russell heading into Flip 1 after which Flip 2, often known as Virage Senna.

Can Russell maintain him off? And if he manages to maintain the lead, how lengthy can he hold it for?

Taking a look at their quickest laps from yesterday — Verstappen’s efficiency in Q3 and Russell’s 1:11.742 in Q2, which was the quickest lap from anybody Saturday — you possibly can see the place Russell and the W15 had a bonus over Verstappen.

On the straights:

That’s the telemetry information for these two laps, courtesy of F1-Tempo. Russell’s energy on the straights, notably the lengthy On line casino Straight heading into the ultimate chicane by the Wall of Champions, may very well be big on Sunday on this race.

It is usually a departure from latest years, when the pure energy of the Crimson Bull challengers gave them the benefit on sections just like the On line casino Straight. For instance, right here is final 12 months’s telemetry information from the Canadian Grand Prix, which noticed Verstappen win, and Fernando Alonso end in P2:

Instances have modified.

Verstappen should win on Sunday, however it’s not a given prefer it has been in 12 months’s previous.

What’s the proper technique?

This may be the largest query heading into Sunday.

What’s the proper technique, given the newly resurfaced monitor in Montreal?

Based on Pirelli’s Technique Information, the brand new floor in Montreal has made a two-stop technique the seemingly answer for groups:

However which two-stop? The medium-hard-hard proven first? Or the medium-hard-medium supplied as possibility two?

Based on Mario Isola, Pirelli’s Director of Motorsport, the graining and degradation points they’ve seen on the medium tires this weekend makes Choice 1 extra seemingly.

“Fortunately, we had that one dry session,” mentioned Isola. “We have been anticipating a mixture between one- and two-stop methods however the put on and degradation we measured on the medium compound is increased than anticipated. I imagine this can push groups onto a two-stop.”

Will a staff beginning outdoors the factors roll the cube on a one-stopper? That is the trail Alexander Albon rode to a P7 in final 12 months’s race, as he stopped on Lap 12 and switched from the medium compound to a set of hards. He then delivered a shocking 58-lap efficiency on that set of hards, for an amazing end result.

Might that be Sergio Pérez’s path to factors?

In fact, all of this assumes a dry race …

What does the climate maintain in retailer?

This may be the largest query of the day.

What do the climate gods have in retailer for the sector in Montreal?

Based on the Climate Channel, there’s a 58% probability of rain proper after lights exit for the Canadian Grand Prix. And moments in the past in one of many help races — the Porsche Carrera Cup North America — moist situations led to this:

All week lengthy drivers and groups have talked in regards to the potential impression from the climate, and the way the outcomes on Sunday would possibly come all the way down to which staff makes the proper technique calls … and once they make them.

That’s wanting very seemingly because the Canadian Grand Prix approaches.

What about Aston Martin?

A staff that has maybe fallen down the pecking order and flown below the radar a bit this season?

Aston Martin.

They have been the darlings of the early season a 12 months in the past, evidenced by Alonso’s P2 on this race final season. However they arrived in Montreal sitting simply fifth within the Constructors’ Championship standings, 52 factors behind fourth-place Mercedes.

Can they’ve a bounceback efficiency at this time?

Saturday was a robust end result for the staff, as Alonso will begin up in P6, whereas Lance Stroll additionally begins in a factors place, as he’ll roll off the road ninth. That provides Aston Martin an excellent probability at conducting one thing they’ve performed simply twice this season:

A double-points weekend.

Staff Principal Mike Krack outlined after qualifying how the circuit in Montreal may be an excellent match for the AMR24.

“We achieved our goal of getting each automobiles via to Q3 this afternoon in Montréal with the prospect of rain not amounting to a lot ultimately. Our tempo has been higher at our ‘dwelling’ race however we’re not getting carried away. It was a detailed battle and inspiring to solely be just a few tenths away from pole place,” mentioned Krack.

“We made good use of the used [tires] which obtained each Lance and Fernando via to Q3 forward of the Ferraris,” added the Aston Martin boss. “They each drove very nicely with an ever-changing monitor. The AMR24 is definitely extra suited to this circuit and we are going to work in a single day to optimise our prospects for tomorrow’s race and provides the native crowd one thing to cheer.”