Christian McCaffrey has been chargeable for two of the perfect single-season performances by a operating again during the last 5 years. He was the third participant in NFL historical past to complete 1,000 or extra receiving and speeding yards in a season with the Carolina Panthers in 2019. Then, final season with the San Francisco 49ers, he turned the twenty third participant to attain at the very least 21 complete touchdowns whereas speeding for a league-best and career-high 1,459 yards.
Each stellar seasons for McCaffrey mixed for only one Offensive Participant of the Yr award and a third-place end in MVP voting – each from his 2023 season. So what extra would McCaffrey should do to impress voters sufficient to turn out to be the primary operating again to win MVP in over a decade?
With 21 of the final 25 MVPs because the flip of the century gained by quarterbacks, McCaffrey already faces a steep hill to climb, however in perhaps a glimmer of hope, the 4 non-quarterbacks to win the award had been operating backs:
- 2012 Adrian Peterson
- 2006 LaDanian Tomlinson
- 2005 Shaun Alexander
- 2000 Marshall Faulk
Let’s name these 4 our baseline for what McCaffrey would wish to do to win MVP, beginning with Peterson. Not solely did Peterson turn out to be the seventh participant in NFL historical past to hurry for two,000 yards, he completed the feat after tearing his ACL and MCL in December of the earlier season. The two,000-yard plateau has been reached simply as soon as since Peterson did it in 2012, with Derrick Henry turning into the eighth participant to eclipse the mark.
Whereas it’s a uncommon accomplishment, the two,000-yard mark doesn’t assure an MVP to a operating again, because it’s merely a coin-flip with solely 4 of these gamers profitable MVP:
- 2020 Henry
- 2012 Peterson – MVP
- 2006 Chris Johnson
- 2003 Jamal Lewis
- 1998 Terrell Davis – MVP
- 1997 Barry Sanders – MVP
- 1984 Eric Dickerson
- 1973 OJ Simpson – MVP
However earlier than we even get to this coin toss of whether or not a CMC2K season would imply an MVP, we have to remedy the logistics of getting McCaffrey to 2,000 yards.
In 2023, McCaffrey completed with 272 speeding makes an attempt, essentially the most he’s had since his 1,000/1,000 season in 2019, whereas averaging a career-high 5.4 yards per try. If McCaffrey needed to eclipse the two,000-yard mark at that common, it will take roughly 370 makes an attempt, a 36% workload improve from final season. That’s a quantity solely seen by two operating backs since 2010 (Henry in 2020 and DeMarco Murray in 2014).
So it’s both make McCaffrey the only characteristic of an offense that features all of the names we all know when he’s already the primary attraction of the offense or just improve his effectivity to 7.4 yards per try together with his 270 carries, a quantity that might break Jim Brown’s document of 6.4 yards per try with a minimal of 270 makes an attempt.
The two,000-yard mark could be a attain for McCaffrey, however he did rating a league-high 21 complete touchdowns final season. Possibly scoring the ball is McCaffrey’s finest probability to win the primary MVP of his profession. That labored for the opposite three MVPs at operating again this century.
When LaDanian Tomlinson gained his MVP in 2006, he broke the document for many speeding touchdowns (28) and complete touchdowns (31) in a season, which each stand immediately. Tomlinson broke each data only one yr after Shaun Alexander gained MVP in 2005, when he set each data with 28 complete touchdowns and 27 speeding. Alexander broke Preist Holmes document of 27 complete touchdowns, which Holmes set in 2003. (Sidebar: Holmes was robbed of MVP in 2003. He completed with 27 complete touchdowns and greater than 2,100 complete yards however completed fifth in MVP voting.) Who’s complete landing document did Holmes break? That will be 2000 MVP Marshall Faulk, who set the document at 26 complete touchdowns as a part of “The Best Present on Turf”.
The sample is there. All McCaffrey should do is see an 11-touchdown improve from 2023 to 2024 to interrupt a document that’s stood for almost 20 years to present himself his finest probability to win MVP.
However that didn’t work for Holmes in 2003, so even that isn’t a assure. So, simply to make certain, McCaffrey ought to rush for two,000 yards whereas breaking Tomlinson’s landing document to 100% little question turn out to be the primary operating again to win MVP since Peterson in 2012. There’s the map for McCaffrey; all he has to do is comply with it.
On second thought, it could be simpler for him to turn out to be an elite quarterback.
