U.S. Open: 3 Daring Predictions for subsequent main at Pinehurst No. 2

Essentially the most difficult check in golf has arrived.

The U.S. Open returns to Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina, the place Martin Kaymer decimated the sphere en path to an eight-shot victory in 2014. That marked the primary event held on No. 2 since Invoice Coore and Ben Crenshaw restored the course in 2010, as they eliminated all the tough and re-shaped the bunkers and fairways.

In addition they changed the thick tough with native areas, hardpan sand, shrubbery, and crabgrass, growing the course’s issue. Solely three gamers completed below par on the 2014 U.S. Open, with the opposite two being Rickie Fowler and Erik Compton apart from Kaymer.

On the majors this yr, Augusta Nationwide performed traditionally troublesome, after which Xander Schauffele received the PGA Championship at 21-under-par.

No one will go that low at Pinehurst No. 2, however that isn’t a noteworthy projection.

Picture by Andrew Redington/Getty Photos

Alas, listed here are three daring predictions for the 2024 U.S. Open:

3. Two LIV Golf gamers end within the prime 5

A bevy of LIV Golf gamers have the potential to play nicely at Pinehurst, however I imagine Bryson DeChambeau will flip in one other strong main efficiency, as will Cameron Smith.

DeChambeau got here near successful his second main championship at Valhalla, ending one stroke behind Schauffele. He additionally tied for sixth at The Masters, demonstrating that he can compete with anybody on any course.

The 2020 U.S. Open champion will accomplish that once more this week at No. 2, the place his beautiful size might be an enormous benefit. However he additionally putted nicely at Valhalla, and these greens at Pinehurst are almost unattainable. You should keep away from three-putting and play from under the opening to contend on this golf course, and DeChambeau will depend on his technique of dissecting inexperienced complexes to try this once more.

He’ll fall brief as soon as extra, however DeChambeau will entertain followers and his fellow gamers on one in all America’s best programs.

Picture by Ken Murray/Getty Photos

As for Smith, he’s arguably one of the best putter on the planet, and it’s good to putt nicely to win at Pinehurst. He has additionally turned in strong performances in three of the 5 earlier majors, so it ought to shock no person once you see him contending once more—and even go on to win.

At Valhalla, Smith tied for 63rd as he misplaced his mojo after opening with a 4-under 68. He really gained greater than three strokes together with his putter on day one, which explains why he contended early. However he then misplaced 5.6 strokes to the sphere on the greens on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. And but, for all 72 holes, he led the sphere in strokes gained across the greens.

However, Smith hardly ever loses his really feel together with his putter, and I don’t envision that taking place once more. As a substitute, I imagine his world-class brief sport could have him vying for a second main title.

2. Like 2014, lower than 5 gamers end under-par

Brandel Chamblee appeared on the No Laying Up podcast to debate quite a few matters, together with this yr’s U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2.

At one level in the course of the episode, Chamblee mentioned the completely different traits of the 4 main championships. Augusta is meant to be enjoyable and all about custom. The Open revolves round mom nature. The PGA of America needs a good however robust check. After which, Chamblee characterised America’s nationwide championship as solely he can: “[The United States Golf Association] needs to scare the s*** out of you.”

That’s precisely what Pinehurst No. 2 will do to the gamers this week—scare the you-know-what out of them.

This golf course checks each side of 1’s sport however particularly locations a premium on method play and the brief sport. These turtleback inexperienced complexes will ricochet golf balls all over, leaving many to ask the all-important query: ought to I putt it? Or ought to I chip it?

Picture by David Cannon/Getty Photos

Regardless, whoever wins this championship will rank in the direction of the highest in scrambling proportion and strokes gained across the inexperienced. One’s brief sport must be on level. However so, too, does their method play as a result of gamers must miss it in the fitting spots simply to have an opportunity to rise up and down.

After which, after all, you have to putt nicely to win U.S. Opens, which isn’t any straightforward process on these loopy inexperienced complexes.

So as to add to that, the course will play agency and quick, as little rain is within the forecast, creating a fair larger problem for one of the best golfers on the planet.

So, contemplating all of those aspects, 5 gamers or fewer will end below par, as this golf course will certainly scare the residing daylights out of the 156 gamers within the discipline.

1. An Australian or European Participant Wins

When you’ve got learn this far, you could have realized that Pinehurst No. 2 just isn’t your typical U.S. Open course with lengthy, gnarly tough that prioritizes discovering the golf green.

As a substitute, the course meanders via Carolina pines on sandy soil, a soil not dissimilar to those discovered throughout the Australian Sand Belt. That’s why I like Jason Day and Cameron Smith to play nicely at Pinehurst. Each have wonderful brief video games and are very good bunker gamers. However Day has struggled at occasions this season together with his irons, which is why I don’t really feel assured in him successful. However he did tie for fourth on the 2014 U.S. Open, so he’s conversant in this golf course.

On prime of that, this golf course has a component of links-style, not because of the climate rolling off the ocean like in England, Scotland, or Eire, however due to the greens. You will notice some gamers attempt to run approaches up and onto the placing surfaces. Additionally, you will see gamers get inventive across the greens, which is why I like Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Åberg, and even Alex Noren to play nicely and presumably win.

Picture by Amy Lemus/Getty Photos

Noren leads the tour in scrambling proportion, whereas Fleetwood and Åberg rank among the many prime 13 in that metric. Different Europeans that might win right here clearly embody Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy. However don’t rule out Shane Lowry or perhaps a longshot hopeful like Victor Perez, a improbable iron participant.

Sure, I perceive that Scottie Scheffler has performed remarkably, together with his most up-to-date victory on the Memorial Event, the place he as soon as once more dominated.

Scheffler additionally has a world-class brief sport, so it could not shock me within the slightest if he received at Pinehurst No. 2, snatching his second main of 2024.

However the previous two U.S. Opens at Pinehurst have been received by non-American gamers: Kaymer from Germany and Michael Campbell from New Zealand in 2005. Scheffler snapping that streak and successful is actually a risk, however like Tiger Woods in 2005, I believe Scheffler comes up simply in need of a 3rd profession main.

The worldwide pattern continues this week at No. 2, with a non-American hoisting the U.S. Open trophy for the third time in 4 years.

Jack Milko is a golf employees author for SB Nation’s Enjoying By. Make sure you take a look at @_PlayingThrough for extra golf protection. You possibly can observe him on Twitter @jack_milko as nicely.