The most effective Stanley Cup Playoffs in latest reminiscence has now given solution to a history-making struggle for the cup. The Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers will meet in a sequence that may characteristic probably the most journey in NHL historical past for a sequence, with the 2 arenas being greater than 3,000 miles aside from Northwestern Canada to the Southeastern United States.
There’s no scarcity of unimaginable tales on this sequence. An previous, proud hockey market vs. a brand new, renewed fanbase, two very completely different manufacturers of hockey, and the NHL’s finest participant in Connor McDavid — a three-time MVP now making an attempt to hoist his first Stanley Cup.
If we lower via the feelings of this sequence and dive into the numbers we get a clearer image of who has the sting on this sequence — and who ought to convey dwelling the cup ultimately, a minimum of in line with the analytics.
Scoring
It goes with out saying that that is the hallmark of the Oilers, and what introduced them so far. Solely three groups within the NHL had the next Objectives For (GF) this season, however the Oilers’ +57 differential was No. 2 within the west solely to the Dallas Stars, and even then simply barely.
No one within the NHL has higher middle play than Edmonton, who’ve a humiliation of riches throughout their three prime strains in McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Mixed the trio put up a daft 91 targets and 214 assists for a complete of 305 pts this season, and that is each the staff’s largest power and what this sequence will hinge on.
If Edmonton is allowed to set the tone in scoring they’re very tough to catch. They recorded 765 high-danger scoring probabilities (HDF) in 2023-24, changing on 10.8 % of those probabilities, which was No. 2 within the NHL solely to the Vancouver Canucks.
In brief: The Oilers offense is ready to create mismatches with puck motion, and when that occurs they make their opponents pay higher than anybody else in hockey.
In relation to the Panthers their offensive recreation is way extra about grinding out the puck, getting gritty, and creating alternatives off their stellar forecheck. This staff was solely eleventh within the NHL in scoring this season, nonetheless they love to manage the puck in their very own zone.
This isn’t a prolific scoring staff, however Florida swallow groups like a black gap and pressure them to play at their tempo. It’s for that reason the Panthers had 56.2 Corsi ranking in 5-vs-5 conditions this yr, a measure of how a lot they have been controlling the puck in comparison with their opponents — in addition to a 55.3 % ranking in high-danger scoring conditions, that means they created extra alternatives than they allowed.
In relation to anticipated targets for (xGF%) vs. realized targets the Oilers are barely beneath tempo at -1.91%, which the Panthers out-performed their xGF by +2.75%, in line with Evolving Hockey.
If we isolate the scoring fully then the Oilers have an edge, however that comes with an enormous asterisk till we discuss …
Protection
It’s right here the place the Panthers actually come into their very own. As completely different as these groups are offensively, the disparity in protection is a chasm. In even-strength conditions it’s damn-near unimaginable to attain in opposition to Florida, who solely allowed 119 targets in 5v5 throughout 82 video games this season.
Coach Paul Maurice has the Panthers working an aggressive, efficient forecheck which takes great strain off his defenders. This has a knock-on impact the place he can rotate in deeper defensive strains, which retains his finest skaters contemporary for situations that they’re actually wanted. For those who dig into the on-ice time of the Panthers prime 4 defenders they lag WELL behind that of the Oilers, and but Florida allowed 0.48 fewer targets per recreation.
What this tells us is that basically Edmonton needed to work more durable on the defensive finish to a obtain a worse end result, which is each an indication of the Panthers’ defensive depth — but additionally their capability to not lean on their prime defenders almost as a lot due to their forecheck.
Evander Kane of the Oilers leads each groups in hits by a ahead by a major margin with 250, however then it falls off shortly with solely McDavid recording greater than 100 hits by an Edmonton ahead. In the meantime, the Panthers have SEVEN forwards with over 100 hits this season, with Sam Reinhart recording a daft 66 blocked pictures this season in addition.
Florida is just not a staff that may fortunately skate again to their zone, reset and dare a staff to enter their ice. As a substitute they prey on groups in their very own third, forcing turnovers, creating chaos, and scoring because of this.
Defensively the important thing statistic right here is predicted targets in opposition to vs. precise. Much like scoring, the Panthers have the sting right here. The Oilers are at a -0.16 (decrease is best on this stat), whereas Florida is a daft -0.49.
It goes with out saying that the Panthers dominate the defensive aspect of the ledger.
Goaltending
Anecdotally the knee-jerk response is to imagine Sergei Bobrovsky of the Panthers owns this matchup — however it’s not almost as clearcut. Whereas Bob is actually the extra family title between him and Stuart Skinner, the Oilers goalie truly did tremendously nicely contemplating the circumstances he confronted this season.
Skinner had a complete of 35 high quality begins this season to Bobrovsky’s 37. He allowed solely .25 extra targets per recreation, and his goal-point share of 9.2 was truly above league-average — regardless of the criticism the Oilers goalie will get.
If we issue within the high quality of protection in entrance of every of those guys there’s most likely a good argument to be made that Skinner was higher than Bobrovsky this season. It’s a tenuous declare to make sure, however the actuality is that Bob hasn’t been unimaginable in 2023-24, however the staff round him took off numerous strain.
The difference-maker is that if these groups have to make a change. Past Skinner the Oilers don’t actually have an incredible choice, with the getting older Jack Campbell and Calvin Pickard each having vital consistency points. In the meantime Florida has Anthony Stolarz to take over when wanted, and whereas he’s not a night-in, night-out goaltender — he’s statistically superior to Bobrovsky this season.
Primarily in a head-to-head between starters it’s a push. If we issue within the depth then the Panthers edge out right here too.
Particular Groups
An extension of those groups’ offense and protection, it’s the ability play and penalty killing the place this sequence will get actually enjoyable.
Energy Play
- Oilers: 64-for-243 (26.34%)
- Panthers: 63-for-268 (23.51%)
Oilers edge by +2.83%
Penalty Kill
- Oilers: 53-for-258 (79.46% killed)
- Panthers: 51-for-291 (82.47% killed)
Panthers edge by +3.01%
That is the thinnest of margins. We might actually break up hairs and say the Panthers are higher general, however it’s a stretch. Nevertheless, what we do see from that is that Florida open themselves as much as needing to kill penalties extra due to their aggressive play type. Florida allowed 44 extra energy play alternatives than league common this yr, whereas the Oilers solely allowed 11 greater than league common.
General we’re speaking about very skinny margins right here general. The Panthers hand over probabilities, however shut them down. The Oilers take higher benefit of their alternatives.
Who wins the cup?
I’m a giant advocate of utilizing statistics to glean info, however there stays dozens of issues analytics can’t account for. The push-and-pull of a sequence, particular person head-to-head matchups on the ice, the group, and on this sequence how the journey will impact each groups.
That stated, all indicators level in direction of this being a yr the place the Florida Panthers will win the Stanley Cup Finals. Their aggressive forecheck and defensive chops have a much better alternative to throw the Oilers’ forwards off their recreation than vice-versa, and each matchup would require Edmonton to attempt to pressure early targets and strain the Panthers to chase them. That’s a tactic that hasn’t actually labored for anybody earlier than.
My prediction is a 4-2 sequence win for the Panthers, and months of hand-wringing a couple of heat climate state taking dwelling hockey’s largest prize.
