Hyperlink to information:
Vault
Uneven Bars
Stability Beam
Ground Train
Over the previous few years I’ve seen gymnastics followers consistently reward the gymnasts who competed in Ground Finals on the 2012 Olympics. The 2012 lineup for ground finals was legendary. It featured the Olympic Ground Champions of 2004 (Catalina Ponor), 2008 (Sandra Izbasa) and 2012 (Aly Raisman). It had the World Champions on Ground of 2010 (Lauren Mitchell) and 2011 (Ksenia Afanasyeva). If that wasn’t sufficient expertise, the 2012 Ground Finals additionally featured two extra gymnasts who would win Olympic medals on this occasion, Aliya Mustafina (2012) and Vanessa Ferrari (2021).
For years gymnastics followers have fawned over this lineup, going so far as to label it essentially the most gifted, star-studded and full area of gymnasts to ever compete in an Equipment Finals on that exact occasion. My objective is to see how the 2012 Ground Finals compares to different Equipment Finals within the historical past of ladies’s inventive gymnastics (WAG). Are there another comparable Equipment Finals that had an equally gifted area? Does the status of 2012 Ground Finals reside as much as its standing as the best Equipment Finals ever when the information is absolutely analyzed?
This particular article is solely the introduction to the sequence and a proof of the methodology I’ll use to reply this query. Not like different information evaluation tasks, this explicit query is extremely subjective and equally complicated to reply. So, I needed to create a “house web page” for the sequence the place I clarify the methodology. However first, let’s speak in regards to the issues.
Downside #1: Outliers
The key impediment to this query is methods to get round outliers. One apparent outlier is Simone Biles who has six gold medals in six appearances on ground. An much more excessive instance is Svetlana Khorkina who has seven gold medals and 11 appearances on the uneven bars. However the largest and most excessive instance of an outlier, from a gymnast whose profession is such an anomaly that she has perpetually destroyed most vault information is Oksana Chusovitina.
At 17 appearances in Vault Finals and ten profession medals on this occasion, Chusovitina would singlehandedly skew all 17 of these lineups in direction of the highest of the checklist.
With these outliers in thoughts, any “profession totals” are unusable. This contains complete appearances, complete medals, complete gold medals, and placement within the factors system are out of the query. That leaves just one choice, to take “finest profession consequence” and use that as a benchmark as a substitute. For instance, a gymnast who gained two bronze medals and a silver medal will probably be counted within the information as a silver medalist.
Downside #2: Subjectivity
As beforehand talked about, it is a extremely subjective query. Gymnastics followers may favor measuring success primarily based on which lineup had essentially the most gold medalists. However what about lineups that had essentially the most repeat medalists? Is a gymnast who gained a single gold medal and retired superior in rank to a gymnast who gained a silver medal at two completely different Olympics? Is a “top-heavy” 8-person lineup that had three gold medalist and no different medalists superior to a “depth” lineup that had seven silver medalists however just one gold medalist?
With the intention to make issues fairer, I will probably be calculating the numbers twice for every equipment. The primary calculation will use the normal factors system and is designed to reward lineups that have been high heavy. The second calculation will take the factors system and add a bonus to reward lineups that had extra depth.
Sadly, in the meanwhile I can’t be counting a number of medals per gymnast. Every gymnast will solely be counted primarily based on her single finest consequence. As a consequence, this implies a gymnast akin to Dina Kochetkova who has two appearances in Ground Finals, a gold medal and a fifth place end will probably be equal in rank to Simone Biles, a 6x gold medalist on this exact same occasion. That’s the worth of making an attempt to supply information on a subject that’s rift with outliers and subjectivity.
Whereas the Kochetkova v. Biles instance could appear unfair, doing it this fashion additionally protects the information from one other main outlier, uneven bars on the 2015 World Championships which infamously featured a 4-way tie for gold. Not solely did 4 gymnasts share a gold medal, however all 4 gymnasts gained a number of medals on the uneven bars. Two of them are repeat gold medalists (Viktoria Komova & Fan Yilin). One other is a gold and silver medalist (Madison Kocian). Whereas the final is a gold and bronze medalist (Daria Spiridonova).
One of many main advantages of limiting the information to at least one medal per gymnast is minimizing the influence of ties that will in any other case dominate the information.
Sooner or later I wish to increase this sequence in a approach that goes past one medal per gymnast, however as a result of that is such an bold undertaking to undertake, the pure plan of action was to begin easy and slowly work my approach as much as a extra complicated approach of rating lineups at a later date.
Methodology #1 (Factors-Conventional)
The primary methodology which is to be labeled the “Factors-Conventional” rating and is meant to reward lineups which are essentially the most “high heavy” will take into account solely medals gained on the Olympics and World Championships.
Solely medals gained on the precise equipment in query will depend in direction of the information, a gymnast profitable in vault finals is not going to assist her rating if she additionally qualifies to uneven bar finals. From right here the usual 3-points for gold, 2-points for silver, and 1-point for bronze factors system will probably be utilized. Within the occasion of a tie each gymnasts will obtain the total level complete. As beforehand talked about, gymnasts are capped at one medal every and no factors are generated for gymnasts who end 4th or decrease within the standings. Qualifying or competing in an equipment finals doesn’t enhance a gymnast’s rating. She should at minimal win a medal.
Methodology #2 (Factors-Bonus)
The second methodology which is to be labeled the “Factors-Bonus” rating is meant to reward lineups that followers would take into account to have “depth.” It’s equivalent to Methodology #1 with the next steps added.
All lineups will probably be counted primarily based on the variety of gymnasts current who by no means gained a medal on this particular equipment on the World Championships or Olympics. Lineups with two or much less gymnasts will obtain a bonus level of +1 added to their complete from the earlier methodology. Lineups with one gymnast or much less will obtain +2 bonus factors. Lineups the place all gymnasts completed their careers with a medal will obtain +3 bonus factors.
There are a handful examples akin to beam finals on the 2021 World Championships the place lineups had greater than eight rivals. To stop these examples from being put at an unfair drawback within the Factors-Bonus mannequin, solely their eight strongest rivals from Methodology #1 will probably be counted when figuring out if they’re eligible for bonus factors.
Be aware: In each rankings the bottom doable rating is six factors.
Lastly, I will probably be releasing the information in REVERSE Olympic order (ground, beam, bars, and vault) as a result of it was 2012 ground that impressed this text and that information ought to be offered first.
Hyperlink to information:
Vault
Uneven Bars
Stability Beam
Ground Train
