2024 U.S. OLYMPIC TRIALS
MEN’S 400 FREE — BY THE NUMBERS:
- World Document: 3:40.07 — Paul Biedermann, Germany (2009)
- American Document: 3:42.78 — Larsen Jensen (2008)
- U.S. Open Document: 3:43.53 — Larsen Jensen, United States (2008)
- World Junior Document: 3:44.32 — Peter Mitsin, Bulgaria (2023)
- 2020 Olympic Champion: Ahmed Hafnaoui, Tunisia — 3:43.36
- 2020 U.S. Olympic Trials Champion: Kieran Smith — 3:44.86
- U.S. Olympic Trials Minimize: 3:55.59
- 2024 Olympic Qualifying Time — 3:46.78
The boys’s 400 freestyle on the 2021 U.S. Olympic Trials delivered one of the crucial memorable moments within the meet’s historical past. After winner Kieran Smith was the one one below the Olympic Qualifying Time, second-place finisher Jake Mitchell was awarded a time trial for a closing try at getting below the ‘A’ lower.
Zane Grothe, who completed eleventh in prelims, had already been below the OQT through the qualification window and would earn the Olympic spot if nobody else who completed forward of him went below the usual within the qualification window.
Because the second-place finisher, Mitchell earned the primary probability on the second spot. And, within the most electrical time trial in historical past, he torched his lifetime greatest by over two seconds, swimming 3:45.86 to get below the OQT and earn his first Olympic berth.
It was a scenario that we’d by no means seen earlier than at U.S. Trials and now as the subsequent Trials meet is rounding into view the query on everybody’s thoughts is “Will it occur once more?”
The 400 freestyle has been the weakest occasion for the American males for years. The problems with the ‘A’ lower abated throughout the previous couple of years as the usual was larger for World Championships, however now it’s again down at 3:46.78.
Six lively American males have lifetime bests below that customary. Extra importantly for the Olympic qualification dialogue, two have been sooner through the qualification window which runs from March 1, 2023, to June 23, 2024.
Beneath the ‘A’ Minimize In The Qualifying Interval
The only solution to keep away from a repeat of the 2021 Trials is for the highest two finishers at Trials to each be below the ‘A’ lower within the closing. As the one two males sooner than the ‘A’ lower within the qualifying window, Smith and David Johnston maintain the benefit coming into Trials.
Amid the struggles to get two males certified on this occasion, Smith has emerged as a constant presence. He gained this race on the 2021 Trials, then secured Olympic bronze in a lifetime greatest of three:43.94, making him the sixth quickest U.S. performer.
David Johnson (photograph: Jack Spitser)
Smith has not been below 3:45 since that swim however he’s a transparent favourite to make the Olympic staff on this occasion. Along with qualifying for the Tokyo Olympics, he earned spots on each the 2022 and 2023 World Championship groups. His quickest time within the qualification window is 3:45.75 from Fukuoka. In 2023-24, he’s been as quick as 3:46.80—produced on the Budapest World Cup cease—which makes him the quickest American this season.
After intriguing SCM swims in 2022 (together with breaking the 800 freestyle American report), Johnston broke by in long-course final season. He charged within the final 100 meters of this occasion at U.S. Nationals, passing Smith and Luke Hobson to earn the win in a lifetime greatest 3:45.75 and qualify for his first long-course Worlds staff.
The swim put him on the map of American males’s distance swimming. Since then, he’s taken an Olympic redshirt from Texas and has been coaching with Schubert’s The Swim Workforce. He’s able to swimming as much as the 1500 freestyle however his outcomes this season indicate that that is the occasion the place’s he’s put most of his focus.
He completed twelfth on the 2024 Worlds with a 3:46.99 that ranks 2nd amongst Individuals this season. Most just lately, he clocked 3:48.06 on the Speedo Grand Problem—a promising in-season swim for him.
Lifetime Bests Beneath the ‘A’ Minimize
After swimming a lifetime greatest in his time trial, Mitchell took much more day off his greatest on the Video games, placing up a 3:45.38 in prelims. He’s simply .09 seconds off hitting the OQT through the qualification window; he swam 3:46.87 for third behind Johnston and Smith on the 2023 U.S. Nationals.
Mitchell has a robust again half however he wasn’t capable of match both Johnston or Smith’s closing pace final summer season, which meant he didn’t have a person swim on the 2023 Worlds. He additionally hasn’t been below 3:46 for the reason that Video games. And, after spending the season racing collegiately for Florida his season-best is a forgettable 3:52.87 from Might’s Atlanta Traditional.
Jake Mitchell (photograph: Jack Spitser)
The season-best isn’t a cause to count on him to carry lower than his greatest to Indianapolis. It’s the three:46 block which will find yourself being an important issue at Trials, particularly if you happen to’re anticipating a breakthrough from somebody decrease on the psych sheet.
In 2021, Smith was the one man below 3:48. 9 swimmers have been below 3:48 within the qualifying interval, so it will be a shock if that held true this season.
In a race filled with query marks, Carson Foster is among the many largest. Is he going to swim this race? In Might, Foster mentioned his lineup nonetheless wasn’t set. If he does swim, he’s able to taking on the occasion. Foster popped an enormous private greatest of three:45.29 in July 2022 at a Sectionals meet, making him the tenth quickest American all-time. He’d scratched the race on the 2022 U.S. Trials and this time would’ve gained there.
Not like the 2023 World Championships, the 400 IM and 400 free don’t battle on the Olympics or on the U.S. Trials. However Foster nonetheless might not need to threat the 400 freestyle in the future earlier than taking up Leon Marchand within the 400 IM.
It’s an extended shot but when Foster does swim this, he instantly turns into a menace for the staff.
There’s additionally Jake Magahey to regulate. Over the course of his school profession at UGA, Magahey has blossomed into one of the crucial persistently quick 500-yard freestylers. He owns probably the most sub-4:08 swims of anybody and has made the occasion podium for 4 straight years.
In 2022, Magahey took the step ahead within the long-course pool that many have been ready for. He gained the 2022 U.S. 400 free nationwide title through the use of his normal back-half-focused race technique. He dropped greater than two seconds from his greatest with a 3:46.36. In that race he ran down Smith, Mitchell, Johnston, and Hobson, exhibiting that he can match up with them in lengthy course.
Magahey hasn’t raced the 400 freestyle this season as he’s been centered on the school season. He’s been 3:47.67 through the qualification interval, which supplies him a niche of .89 seconds to make up and hit the OQT. Although he nonetheless has that field to examine, he ought to nonetheless be a significant factor within the closing.
Lastly, Grothe holds one of many quickest private bests within the area courtesy of his 3:44.43 from 2017. He’s hit the Olympic Trials lower however hasn’t raced this occasion since January 2023. As an alternative, he’s been centered on the 200 free.
The three:47s
Behind the boys who’ve been below the OQT earlier than, there’s a handful of swimmers lurking with private bests within the 3:47 vary. They should drop and in the event that they do, they’ll discover themselves within the thick of the motion.
Maybe probably the most harmful is Aaron Shackell. Shackell began his freshman season at Cal, however by December had declared an Olympic redshirt season and returned dwelling to coach at Carmel (he’s since introduced he’s transferring to Texas).
Shackell shouldn’t be too far off the OQT as his PB is a 3:47.00 from the 2023 Junior Nationals. His season-best sits at 3:48.92 from Indianapolis Speedo Sectionals—the identical meet he swam PBs within the 100/200 free.
Aaron Shackell (photograph: Jack Spitser)
That will counsel that Shackell has zeroed in on the 200 freestyle as his greatest probability to make the Olympic staff. However he’s solely .22 seconds from the OQT on this occasion. And, it’s doable that when taper hits, he’ll drop on this occasion as properly, which might instantly make him a menace to the highest contenders.
Drew Kibler has had most of his senior worldwide success come within the 200 freestyle. He’s modified his coaching base a number of instances through the previous Olympic quad however after he landed at ASU he shortly noticed enhancements within the 400 free. On the U.S. Open, Kibler lowered his private greatest from 3:49.88 to three:47.58.
He’s solely been sub-3:50 as soon as since then, however the time makes him onerous to disregard right here. Like Shackell, Kibler might select to give attention to the 100/200 free given the open relay spots. However he’s swum himself into an attention-grabbing place on this occasion as properly and given himself the possibility to point out the freestyle vary that was an indicator of his NCAA profession.
Ross Dant and Rex Maurer are two different swimmers within the area with PBs within the 3:47 vary. Dant was the third place finisher in 2021 and presumably would’ve been subsequent up if Mitchell hadn’t hit the ‘A’ lower in his time trial. Since racing the 800 free on the 2023 Worlds, Dant’s solely raced long-course as soon as: on the ASU vs. NC State twin meet. There, he posted a 3:56.87, properly off his 3:47.11 private greatest from 2022. That swim coupled along with his quiet NCAA season leaves a variety of questions on his kind that gained’t be answered till the meet begins. However, he additionally simply missed his greatest final summer season (3:47.87) and if he’s again on 3:47-range kind he ought to function within the closing once more.
In his freshman season at Stanford, Maurer had a promising midseason invitational however was approach off his greatest at NCAAs. Since then, he’s entered the switch portal and popped up on the Longhorn Elite Invite racing for Longhorn Aquatics, swimming 3:50.25. Maurer had an intriguing 2023 summer season, posting a 3:47.63 private greatest on the 2023 LEN U23 European Championships.
It’s a threat to make a coaching base change so near Trials, but when it pays off Maurer may discover himself within the closing with an opportunity to make his first Olympic staff.
Large Drops Incoming?
What’s an Olympic Trials with out some surprises? And in an occasion as large open as this one, there’s loads of room for them. The 400 freestyle is ready for a breakthrough from an American swimmer and it’s doable that we may get one from a swimmer sitting greater than a second away from the OQT. The swimmers we’re circling to look at listed here are Hobson, Bobby Finke, Luke Whitlock, and Daniel Matheson. The latter three are distance specialists who may play spoiler right here of their dash occasion.
Within the 2023 U.S. Nationals closing, Hobson jetted out for the early lead. He paid for his opening pace on the again half of the race, fading to seventh. His lifetime greatest stands at 3:49.25 from the prelims, giving him a good margin of time to drop. Since that meet, Hobson’s solely raced this occasion on the U.S. Open (4:00.12). At his most up-to-date meet, the Longhorn Elite Invite, Hobson skipped this race and did the 50/100/200 free. That might level to him selecting to give attention to the shorter races–a selection lots of the swimmers we count on on this area face. However Hobson’s drops within the 500 free means that he’s able to sooner than a 3:49.
The reigning Olympic 800 and 1500 freestyle champion, Finke has already written himself into the historical past books within the distance occasions. His pace in these races has many satisfied that he’s bought legit 400 free and 400 IMs in him. The 400 free is on Day 1 at Trials, adopted by the 400 IM on Day 2 and the 800 free on Day 3. That might be a busy begin to the meet for Finke so we count on him to go for both the 400 free or the IM.
Bobby Finke (photograph: Jack Spitser)
If he goes with the previous, then he’s bought some work to do along with his 3:48.17 PB. That point is from 2018 and given the strides he’s made since then within the distance occasions, it’s affordable to count on him to be sooner. He’s already been inside a second of that point this season, posting 3:49.01 in Might on the Atlanta Traditional.
Simply behind him this season is the up-and-coming Luke Whitlock. Whitlock will be a part of Finke in Gainesville this fall and has been on a heater this spring, posting PBs throughout a number of occasions. On the Indy Might Cup, Whitlock swam a lifetime greatest 3:49.10 within the 400 free. He’d rounding into kind at simply the appropriate time to upset the older swimmers and seize a spot on the Olympic staff. It’s extra more likely to occur in his specialty distance occasions however don’t ignore him right here both.
And eventually, we’ve bought Matheson. He’s made main enhancements in a number of occasions since transferring from USC to ASU. Like Whitlock, he might have a greater probability on the upset in an extended occasion, however he’s made large drops within the 400 free. On the 2023 TYR Professional Championships, he dropped 5.84 seconds and posted a 3:48.94. He’ll want to maneuver in prelims but when he makes the ultimate is a strong choose for an upset.
The Verdict
The way you see this occasion taking part in out doubtless will depend on whether or not you suppose two males will get below the ‘A’ lower. Smith’s consistency makes him a secure choose to win. Past him, there are execs and cons for every swimmer. Even taking the 2024 Worlds into consideration, Johnston’s had a quiet Olympic redshirt season however he’s hit the OQT. Mitchell and Magahey are nonetheless searching for the ‘A’ lower within the qualifying window however have been below earlier than. Foster’s presence is questionable, as is Hobson’s.
That leaves the door open for somebody new to step by–and we count on there to be a variety of completely different solutions to that query.
SwimSwam Picks
Darkish Horse: Gabriel Jett — Jett was our darkish horse for the 2023 U.S. Nationals and we’re sticking with him once more. A part of that is because of Jett’s versatility–he’s additionally identified for his butterfly prowess–the jury’s out on whether or not he races this. He skipped it on the 2023 Nationals, then dropped a 3:49.72 PB later in the summertime on the TYR Professional Championships. It was a drop from his 3:52.16 private greatest performed a 12 months earlier, exhibiting his continued progress within the occasion. If he swims this occasion at Trials, it appears doubtless that he’d drop once more, which might put him proper within the combine for a spot within the closing.
