The 49ers don’t really feel scary anymore, and the tape proves it

Do y’all keep in mind that band you grew up on at all times being good, enjoying top quality music, however then as everybody will get older and life adjustments, the music doesn’t sound the identical?

That’s what the San Francisco 49ers really feel like.

Amidst a yr of damage, dysfunction, and simply total not feeling the identical because the face-melting groups we usually affiliate with San Francisco, this season has been pushed to the brink of lacking the playoffs. The Niners have been met with a chilly splash of actuality on Sunday, dropping 20-17 at residence to the Seattle Seahawks, their first loss to Seattle since 2021. The loss dropped them to 5-5, however with losses to the Rams and Cardinals, they’re lifeless final within the division, in a yr the place they have been speculated to as soon as once more be on the prime of the convention.

Let’s go below the hood and determine why precisely this staff hasn’t been the identical 49ers staff we all know.

The offense has been … bizarre

For those who go by counting stats, the Niners’ offense has been one of many higher ones within the sport. Second in yards per recreation, tied for eighth in factors per recreation, fifth in EPA/play, and sixth in Success Price. Nevertheless, the offense hasn’t felt prefer it’s been straightforward to come back by. Whenever you watch a Kyle Shanahan offense in San Francisco, you’re usually working below the idea that they’ll be capable of generate straightforward offense by way of the run recreation and in Yards After the Catch. The mixture of Shanahan’s scheme and the MonStars (WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, TE George Kittle, RB Christian McCaffrey and FB Kyle Juszczyk) made it inconceivable to defend them. Any checkdown may very well be was an eight yard acquire, and any eight yard acquire may very well be a landing.

Effectively, the YAC hasn’t precisely been hitting the identical this season. This season the Niners are twenty fourth in whole Yards after the Catch and and twenty fifth in YAC/completion, per Professional Soccer Reference, method down from being first within the NFL in that very same metric in 2023. The dynamic potential for each checkdown to be a risk has considerably gone away this season for San Francisco, closing the margin for error this staff has.

This margin will get particularly shut within the pink zone, the place the Niners have fully fallen aside. This season San Francisco is fifteenth in EPA per play within the pink space and 14th in Success Price, noticeably down from fifth in EPA per play and first in Success Price within the pink zone in 2023. Because the MonStars have worn down on account of damage (Kittle didn’t play within the loss to Seattle, McCaffrey remains to be getting again to 100%, Aiyuk is out for the season with a torn ACL, and Samuel has missed time with damage/illness), the offense simply hasn’t felt like they’ve been capable of hit the straightforward buttons as usually as they’ve been capable of.

Take this play towards Seattle, for instance. Though San Francisco is a methods away from the top zone, you usually count on McCaffrey to make somebody miss and get greater than 5 yards. He’s working an choice route and goes to the area, however as soon as he’s there, doesn’t make anybody miss.

Examine this to 2023, the place McCaffrey is working an choice route once more and has leverage to the skin and is ready to flip this into an enormous constructive acquire. I’m not saying McCaffrey has misplaced a step, however your entire staff’s lack of ability to hit huge on performs after the catch this season has made the margins a bit smaller this season.

I additionally suppose they haven’t been as capable of beat man protection as they was. Final season they shredded the little man protection they confronted, posting a 63.44 whole EPA and 56.9% Constructive Play Price towards man protection (per Sports activities Data Options). This season, whereas nonetheless being within the prime ten amongst NFL groups, they haven’t been practically as potent. By way of 10 video games they’ve already had 100 passing makes an attempt towards man protection (they’d 106 of these makes an attempt in 2023—whole), and solely generated a complete EPA of 8.35 and a forty five.7% Success Price. Once more, not numbers to show your nostril up at however completely not what we count on from this core of gamers.

That is the place they miss Aiyuk and desperately want McCaffrey to return to what he was. They have been capable of shred man protection as a result of it meant you have been leaving McCaffrey in remoted conditions on a linebacker, or Aiyuk would shred on the skin. Final yr, Aiyuk had an unimaginable 1.01 EPA per goal towards man protection third in your entire NFL in that metric. He was behind George Kittle, who was at an absurd 1.11 EPA per goal towards man on 22 targets. This yr, their finest receiver towards man is WR Jauan Jennings, who at a 0.69 isn’t dangerous, however there’s way more wrestle this season. Regardless that some catches are being made, there’s a lot much less explosion coming from this staff.

Which brings us to the QB. Hear, I’m not doing Brock Purdy discourse in 2024. It’s pointless to proceed to speak in the identical circles we’ve been speaking about him in for the final two years. What I’ll say is that he’s improved this yr in his scrambling potential to mitigate among the margin for error this season, but in addition can’t overcome these smaller margins by himself. Not each QB is Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, and Purdy must be helped out a bit.

There’s been loads made concerning the Niners not altering protections or letting Purdy name audibles, however I simply don’t suppose that’s the case. Purdy has the identical quantity of freedom as most different QBs within the NFL in terms of “can”-ing performs (going from one playcall to the opposite playcall). The larger downside right here is an offensive line that hasn’t actually performed as much as customary. Trent Williams remains to be good, and rookie Dominick Puni is promising at proper guard, however all over the place else there are main holes. You’ll be able to solely scheme your self away from a poorer offensive line for therefore lengthy, and the Niners’ offense appears like they’re struggling to play the fitting notes collectively in crucial areas.

The defensive mind drain has lastly hit

For years, the San Francisco 49ers have been capable of reload their protection after dropping coordinators and high quality gamers to damage or free company. This yr it hasn’t been the identical case. Their protection has gone by main upheaval and “mind drain” on the defensive facet of the ball that it’s lastly taking successful on the unit’s success. They’re presently twelfth in defensive EPA per play allowed and seventeenth in Success Price allowed, however these are each main steps again from being at or close to the highest of the league as we’re used to seeing them. The fixed upheaval on the coordinator spot, going from Robert Saleh, to Demeco Ryans, to Steve Wilks to now Nick Sorensen and Brandon Staley crafting the protection has taken this nicely coached unit to at least one that makes a bit extra errors than we’re used to seeing.

On prime of that, the power to rebuild and reload the defensive roster has taken some hits. That is their 2023 roster, by way of ESPN’s Invoice Barnwell, and the quantity of snaps they’ve performed for the staff in 2024. In some unspecified time in the future the development of at all times dropping gamers has to take impact, and it appears to be like prefer it has for the Niners.

A significant sticking level has been their lack of ability to get strain outdoors of Nick Bosa. When Bosa is on the sector, the Niners’ strain fee is 35.4%, which might tie them with the Minnesota Vikings for tenth in your entire league. With out Bosa it drops to twenty-eight%, placing them in between the Arizona Cardinals and Jacksonville Jaguars, who’re twenty ninth and thirtieth within the league, respectively.

The motley crew of Leonard Floyd, Yetur Gross-Matos and Robert Beal haven’t been constant sufficient to supply constant pop subsequent to Bosa, and it’s making their protection endure. In addition they merely aren’t adequate towards the run this yr, which is extra of a teambuilding factor than the rest. They’re twenty second in Dashing Success Price allowed and twentieth in EPA/rush allowed and even decrease final yr, each main drops from being second in each classes in 2021. They’ve struggled to discover a true nostril deal with after DJ Jones left in free company (though rookie DT Evan Anderson has helped out in that space), and with the constant mind drain beginning to come by, they don’t have as a lot potential to beat it this season. Whereas the Niners’ offense has felt snakebitten by damage, their protection appears like some flaws in teambuilding coming residence to roost.

Now, I’m not going to be the one to doom and gloom the Niners. It’s exhausting to say {that a} staff with Kyle Shanahan as their head playcaller and the expertise on offense goes to falter to finish this season. Nevertheless, they’ve video games on the street towards Inexperienced Bay, Arizona, Buffalo and Miami, together with residence tilts towards Detroit and the Los Angeles Rams to finish the season. In the event that they’re going to make the playoffs, it’ll should be going by a assassin’s row of opponents to wrap this season up.

Regardless that it’s not all doom and gloom, it does really feel like that is the ultimate journey for this model of the Niners. And whether it is, it’s much less a grand finale, and extra of a tragic swan tune.