UFC 307 Paths to Victory: How does Khalil Rountree Jr. pull off an enormous upset over Alex Pereira?

On Saturday night time on the Delta Middle in Salt Lake Metropolis, Utah, UFC 307 takes place with gentle heavyweight champion Alex Pereira placing his title on the road towards fellow knockout artist Khalil Rountree Jr. in the principle occasion.

Pereira is among the prime pound-for-pound fighters within the sport and has already jumped in on two earlier events this yr to assist the UFC at UFC 300 and at UFC 303 (the place he delivered spectacular knockouts). As such, Rountree is a big underdog to the champion. However that doesn’t imply “The Warfare Horse” can’t shock the world on Saturday so let’s check out how Rountree would possibly writer the upset, and at how Pereira retains his belt.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs

Paths to Victory for Alex Pereira at UFC 307

That is the third one of those I’ve written for Pereira this yr, and actually, it’s getting a bit troublesome to search out new methods to say that “Poatan” is superior. The person is speed-running a Corridor of Fame profession and is already climbing the listing of all-time fighters in only a few quick years within the sport. He within the midst of a really unprecedented profession and, at the very least on paper, that ought to proceed on Saturday.

Maybe greater than every other particular person in MMA at the moment, Pereira possesses a real nuclear choice. He’s very presumably the toughest pound-for-pound puncher within the sport and what’s actually unimaginable about it’s that he doesn’t even swing exhausting. He’s finest recognized for his deadly left hook, however each shot Pereira throws thuds like a cinderblock and lacks the large wind-up you see from another heavy hitters. That is the engine that drives his whole recreation. The specter of cataclysmic repercussions at a second’s discover forces each Pereira opponent to organize accordingly and thus dictates a lot of how his fights play out.

Alongside these strains, whereas Pereira’s knockouts energy his recreation, it’s his low kicks that drive the automotive. Pereira is among the perfect calf-kickers in MMA as a result of he reveals virtually no setup on them they usually nonetheless severely impede his opponents. They’re the bedrock of his recreation, permitting him to attain seemingly innocuous blows, after which oops, immediately Pereira’s landed 15 in three minutes and now your leg doesn’t work anymore.

And for Pereira to defend his title on Saturday, these are the one actual instruments he wants. The construction of Pereira’s recreation is a Scylla and Charybdis setup, the place you possibly can keep on the skin and get kicked to loss of life or you possibly can wade into the hazard zone and face his nuclear energy. Both avenue ends in loss of life, and for Rountree, that is very true as he isn’t an adept defender of low kicks and he’s not going to immediately flip right into a D-1 wrestler. Additionally, he has a foul behavior of dropping his proper hand when he throws his personal left.

For Pereira, the trail ahead is obvious: be your self and restrict protracted engagements. Rountree will not be nearly as good of a kickboxer, however he does have velocity and energy and throws together, which is a danger. Pereira ought to chop the leg from the skin and work pictures to the physique as nicely, whereas he waits for Rountree to drop his guard, then growth goes the dynamite.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs

Paths to Victory for Khalil Rountree Jr. at UFC 307

A UFC fighter since 2016 the place he entered the promotion off of The Final Fighter, Rountree has established himself as one among gentle heavyweight’s premier knockout artists throughout his eight-year tenure. However maybe extra spectacular than his knockouts is the truth that Rountree has confirmed notably succesful at dispatching former Glory Kickboxers, going 3-0 over them within the UFC. Now although “The Glory Killer” faces the Glory Kickboxing finish boss in former two-division champion Pereira.

Rountree’s success towards former kickboxers comes down to 1 easy factor: he’s a strong striker in his personal proper and he possess the velocity and energy to catch individuals off guard. Rountree is quick and highly effective and throws fight-ending pictures in speedy mixture, which along with his willingness to have interaction make him a menace throughout any change. That being mentioned, it additionally opens him as much as getting cracked by counters, which is loss of life towards Pereira.

Rountree faces two main points on this matchup. The primary is navigating Pereira’s kicks. Rountree isn’t nice at checking low kicks and whereas one hopes he’s labored on that talent for this struggle, a extra seemingly response is drilled counters, with Rountree’s left hand being keyed to set off a responding shot each time Pereira kicks him. If he can’t disincentivize calf kicks with checks, counters is the one different actual choice accessible to stopping Pereira from dictating the motion.

The second problem is producing his personal constant offense. We noticed towards Dustin Jacoby that Rountree had a tough time managing the gap towards a superb striker with good footwork, and thus settled on lunging in recklessly at instances. I can’t stress sufficient how dangerous of an thought that’s towards Pereira, who will instantly membership him for it.

As an alternative, Rountree ought to insist on successful the strain battle. Pereira can struggle off his again foot however Rountree is in significantly better form if he’s at all times the one coming ahead. He additionally ought to feint quite a bit. Feints opened up plenty of alternatives for Israel Adesanya, and from Rountree they may very well be the distinction in touchdown a fight-ender or not. Most significantly although, Rountree wants to make use of these instruments to crowd Pereira and get inside, the place he can swing for the fences. Might “Poatan” catch him if they begin buying and selling hooks in a cellphone sales space? Sure. However that can be by far the place that Rountree is more than likely to land his personal fight-ender on Pereira.

Get inside and throw down, then see the place the chips fall.

One Massive Query

Does the grueling schedule lastly meet up with Pereira?

Pereira is 37 years outdated. That’s not precisely a spring rooster, even up at gentle heavyweight. The person has been preventing professionally for 12 years and has over 50 skilled fights. That’s A LOT of mileage. On prime of that, Pereira has been absurdly energetic since becoming a member of the UFC. That is his tenth struggle in three years. That’s a Donald Cerrone-level of exercise, which is sweet for star-making however dangerous for remaining undefeated.

In nearly any sport, frequent competitors results in occasional defeat. You may’t at all times have your finest day, particularly when you’re preventing each couple of months. And that will get exacerbated in fight sports activities as a result of the price of coaching and the accidents you accumulate there are so excessive. To this point, Pereira has largely confirmed himself able to successful by means of any such hindrances, however when you roll the cube sufficient, finally they arrive up snake eyes.

Prediction

On the danger of sounding disrespectful to Rountree, this ought to be a showcase for Pereira. Rountree is a enjoyable fighter, however he’s like that quote from 300, “extra brawler than warrior, he makes a beautiful mess of issues.” If Rountree could make this extra of a brawl than a kickboxing struggle, his possibilities to win go up, however even when he does, that’s nonetheless no assure. Pereira is simply too savvy and packs an excessive amount of energy in his personal proper for Rountree 8 out of 10 instances.

Alex Pereira knocks out Khalil Rountree Jr. at 1:03 of Spherical 2.