Inflow of Expertise Buoys #7 Texas Males because the Bowman Period Begins

GRADING CRITERIA

Over time, we’ve gone forwards and backwards on the best way to undertaking factors, starting from largely subjective rankings to extra data-based grading standards based mostly on ‘projected returning factors.’ We like being as goal as potential, however we’re going to stay with the method we’ve adopted post-Covid. The “stars” will rely closely on what swimmers truly did final yr, however we’ll additionally give credit score to returning swimmers or freshmen who’ve posted instances that will have scored final yr.

Since we solely profile the highest 12 groups on this format, our grades are designed with that vary in thoughts. Within the grand scheme of faculty swimming and in comparison with all different faculty applications, prime 12 NCAA applications would just about all grade nicely throughout the board. However within the curiosity of creating these previews informative, our grading scale is hard – designed to indicate the tiers between the nice stroke teams, the good ones, and the 2015 Texas fly group sorts.

• 5 star (★★★★★) – a uncommon, elite NCAA group projected to attain 25+ factors per occasion
• 4 star (★★★★) – a really, excellent NCAA group projected to attain 15-24 factors per occasion
• 3 star (★★★) – NCAA group projected to attain 5-14 factors per occasion
• 2 star (★★) – a stable NCAA group projected to attain 1-4 factors per occasion
• 1 star (★) –  an NCAA group that’s projected to attain no factors per occasion, although that doesn’t imply it’s with out potential scorers – they’ll simply have to leapfrog some swimmers forward of them to do it

We’ll grade every occasion self-discipline: dash free (which we outline to incorporate all of the relay-distance freestyle occasions, so 50, 100 and 200), distance free, IM, breaststroke, backstroke, butterfly and diving. Use these grades as a jumping-off level for dialogue, quite than a cause to be indignant.

Additionally, take into account that we’re publishing many of those previews earlier than groups have posted finalized rosters. We’re making our assessments based mostly on the most effective data now we have obtainable on the time of publication, however we reserve the best to make modifications after publication based mostly on any new data that will emerge concerning rosters. If that does occur, we’ll make sure to notice the change.

2023-2024 LOOKBACK

The place to start? May as nicely begin with final yr’s preview, which we ended by saying that “the Longhorns appear to be they’re in a really actual hazard of falling out of the highest 5 for the primary time in a few of the freshmen’s lifetimes.”

Whereas we hate to be the brokers of doom and gloom, that warning turned out to be true. With stars like Carson Foster (professional) and David Johnston (redshirt) out, and never a lot of a dash core, it was going to be powerful for the Longhorns in Eddie Reese’s remaining season.

There have been actually some vivid spots, particularly with the freshman class.

Will Modglin and Nate Germonprez proved to be top-of-the-line freshman duos within the nation. Modglin took down the Texas 100 again file, and he and Germonprez lopped off chunks of time in numerous occasions all season lengthy. Camden Taylor didn’t make NCAAs individually, however he joined with Modglin and/or Germonprez on all three freestyle relays.

Luke oabson (photograph: Jack Spitser)

In the meantime, junior Luke Hobson had a heckuva NCAAs. He and Leon Marchand each broke the all-time 200 free file on the primary day, and after taking 2nd to Marchand within the 500, Hobson wrested again the 200 free file within the particular person occasion, setting the brand new mark at 1:28.81.

Two days after the completion of NCAAs (coincidentally April 1st), Texas introduced that former Michigan and Arizona State head coach Bob Bowman can be the brand new Director of Swimming.  Inside days of Bowman’s rent, the switch floodgates opened. It turned out that Hubert Kos can be the one Solar Satan to observe Bowman to Austin, however former top-ranked recruits Aaron Shackell (Cal), Rex Maurer (Stanford) and Michael Cotter (NC State), in addition to D3 star Ben Sampson all introduced their transfers to Texas.

Though we’re specializing in the faculty season, it’s nonetheless value mentioning that the Longhorns, new and previous, had loads of success this summer season. Foster, Johnston, Shackell and Hobson all made the US Olympic group, and Hobson truly grew to become the primary Longhorn to medal within the 200 free, incomes a bronze. In the meantime, Kos, representing Hungary, took gold within the 200 again.

All that to say, on paper, Texas has loads of momentum heading into the 2024-2025 collegiate season.

SPRINT FREE: ★★★

This part goes to sound quite a bit like final yr’s preview however with a Texas-sized record of latest names.

Nobody presently on the roster swam the 50 free at NCAAs, whereas solely two returning swimmers contested the 100 free. The large gun was Luke Hobson, who, as we mentioned, is now the quickest swimmer ever within the 200 (1:28.81). He’s additionally the quickest returner within the 100, and the one man on the group who’s been underneath 42 with a finest time of 41.35. In between his victory within the 200 and his Eleventh-place end within the 100, he accounted for the entire Longhorns factors on this self-discipline final season.

Fifth-year Coby Carrozza is the one different returner who’s scored on this self-discipline. He didn’t make it out of prelims final yr, going 1:32.65 for twenty second, however he hit a lifetime better of 1:31.97 from Large 12s that will’ve made the B-final, and he’s scored as lately as 2023, when he completed eighth general. He additionally hit a lifetime better of 42.83 within the 100 at Large 12 Championships after which added a few tenths at NCAAs to complete in direction of the rear of the pack in prelims.

Nate Germonprez (photograph: Jack Spitser)

We weren’t totally certain the place the versatile Nate Germonprez would focus as a freshman final yr, however he settled into an IM + dash free area of interest and completed the season because the Longhorns’ #2 man in each the 100 free (42.24) and 200 free (1:33.25). He didn’t race the person 50 free all in the course of the season, however he reliably cut up sub-19 on the Longhorns’ 200 free relays. His 100 finest would’ve tied for thirty third at NCAAs had he opted to contest that occasion as an alternative of swimming all 5 Texas relays.

Texas freshmen fashioned the core of their dash relay corps final season. Will Modglin targeted on again and IM, however hit lifetime bests of 19.55 and 42.49 main off Longhorn relays. Camden Taylor, in the meantime, improved from 20.42/43.72/1:36.30 to 19.58/42.53/1:33.90, with even higher relay splits. He would be the Longhorns’ finest probability of getting somebody certified by the use of the 50 or the 100 free.

Rising junior Alec Filipovic was a stable relay contributor all season lengthy. He set a lifetime finest at Large 12s with a 19.54 50 free, and he additionally cut up a stable 42.12 anchoring the medley relay there.

We’d as nicely give David Johnston his first-ever point out within the dash part. From what we will inform, he’s the one man in historical past to have gone sub-4:09 within the 500 free and never have swum on the 4×200 at NCAAs. Nevertheless, his 200 free lifetime better of 1:35.10 got here from a twin meet, and he had a memorably gutsy swim on the anchor leg of the 4×200 relay on the 2024 World Championships. We’re not saying there’s no probability he swims the 200 free or the relay, however there’s not likely a necessity for it given what the Longhorns have coming in.

Texas has lengthy had a fame as a 200 free manufacturing unit, and that’s not more likely to change anytime quickly underneath Bowman. Actually, a relay group of transfers Hubert Kos, Rex Maurer, Aaron Shackell, and Michael Cotter would rating within the 800 free relay, and the Longhorns don’t lose anybody from final yr’s third-place squad.

Kos owns a person finest time of 1:33.59, and has cut up 1:32.20 on a flying begin (together with a 41.2 anchoring a 400 free relay. The opposite three huge freestyles transfers all personal finest instances from highschool Shackell (1:32.85), Maurer (1:33.54), and Cotter (1:33.80). Each Maurer and Cotter convey extra 50/100 depth. Cotter owns lifetime bests of 20.19/43.55 and Maurer 19.77/43.28, so it’s actually conceivable they might discover their methods on the shorter freestyle relays as nicely.

Jackson Huckabay returns from a medical redshirt with a 200 free finest time of 1:34.38, and junior Kobe Ndebele has been 19.76/43.10/1:34.48, placing him inside hanging vary of some relay consideration.

Whereas the freshman class doesn’t embrace anybody who’s a slum-dunk guess to qualify for NCAAs or crack Longhorn relays this yr, they’ve received a robust trio that might type the core of the dash relays down the street. That group contains Kyle Peck (19.74/43.66/1:37.13), Jeremy Kelly (20.02/43.67/1:36.10), and Garrett Gould (19.92/43.55).

Moreover, Cooper Lucas is a type of guys who’s simply all-around quick, and arrives with instances of 20.86/43.52/1:34.69, whereas Max Hatcher (21.19/45.78/1:36.40) and Luke Stibrich (21.19/44.82/1:36.94) are extra distance-oriented, however with stable dash instances.

Simply in case you weren’t maintaining observe, the Longhorns have 11 males underneath 1:35 within the 200 free, and that doesn’t even embrace David Johnston.

Regardless of all that spectacular inflow of depth, it’s value remembering that it took 19.04/41.74/1:32.15 to earn a second swim within the dash freestyles final yr. Proper now, Hobson and Carrozza are the one guys on this group with scoring instances in any of those occasions, so this stays a three-star group, with the potential for an enormous explosion, particularly within the 200 free.

DISTANCE FREE: ★★★★★

The five hundred free was the Longhorns’ strongest occasion final yr, with a pair of A-finals from Luke Hobson (2nd) and Coby Carrozza (Seventh).

David Johnston (photograph: Jack Spitser)

It’s about to get even stronger. David Johnston returns after redshirting and making the US Olympic group within the 1500. He’s a two-time A-finalist within the 500 free, and he’s completed between 4th and Seventh every of his three NCAA appearances within the 1650.

As if that’s not sufficient, the Longhorns add extra star energy with Rex Maurer (4:11.88), Aaron Shackell (4:15.35), and Cooper Lucas (4:14.53). Shackell received the 400m free on the Olympic Trials and in the end positioned eighth within the remaining in Paris.

Are they going to place six males into the finals? Perhaps not, however you’ve received to love their possibilities, particularly if/when Jackson Huckabay, who missed final season attributable to medical points, returns after going from 4:26.36 to 4:16.31 as a freshman/sophomore in 2022-2023.

We’ll word right here that Alec Enyeart, who certified for NCAAs as a freshman, however missed the reduce time final yr as a sophomore, now seems to be off the roster.

Freshmen Max Hatcher (4:21.55/15:48.64) and Luke Stibrich (4:24.34) add a long way depth. Lucas has been 15:41.13, but when we needed to guess proper now, it appears to be like like he might go for the 200 fly.

BACKSTROKE: ★★★★★

Will Modglin had a stellar debut season for the Longhorns, changing into Texas’ first two distance scoring risk on this self-discipline because the days of John Shebat and Austin Katz. He quickly improved from 45.01/1:40.54 to  44.20/1:38.85. That 100 time eclipsed Shebat to make him the quickest Longhorn ever, with one other three years to go.

Hubert Kos (photograph: Jack Spitser)

Nevertheless, Modglin’s mark might not survive lengthy. Hubert Kos had a dynamic Pac-12 championship meet for ASU final yr, blasting instances of 43.75 and 1:35.69. That latter time set the all-time yards file earlier than Destin Lasco re-set the mark a couple of weeks later at NCAAs, whereas his 100 again time places him at #9 all-time. Oh yeah, he’s additionally received gold within the 200 again on the summer season’s largest worldwide meets every of the final two years.

However wait, there’s extra. Transfers Rex Maurer and Ben Sampson add scoring potential as nicely. Maurer’s been 45.40/1:39.75. That 100 time got here whereas main off Stanford’s 400 medley at Pac-12s. The 200 again time got here from midseason, and it will’ve been ok to make the B-final at NCAAs. Sampson’s been a tick slower (45.88/1:40.34), so whereas he doesn’t have scoring instances in both occasion, he’s not far off, particularly within the 200.

It’s powerful to imagine that lower than two years in the past, Carson Foster was main off Texas’ relays. Subsequent yr, they’ll have a minimum of 5 guys underneath 46, as freshman Kyle Peck arrives with bests of 45.68 and 1:42.71. Moreover, Jeremy Kelly owns a 47.75 100 time together with a 1:47.75 within the 200.

Multi-time NCAA qualifier Christopher O’Connor isn’t on the roster this yr, however they bring about again Nathan Quarterman, who clocked a lifetime better of 1:41.71 late within the 2022-2023 after which didn’t race after October final season.

BREASTSTROKE: ★

Final yr, Nate Germonprez got here in with breaststroke instances that put him on the prime of the depth chart…after which didn’t contest the self-discipline all that a lot.

In the meantime, fellow freshman Will Scholtz improved from 53.61/1:56.72 to 52.09/1:53.70. At Large 12s, he put up relay splits of 23.17/51.65 that have been just about equivalent to Jake Foster’s relay splits at NCAAs. So, except Germonprez switches focus again to breast, Scholtz would be the main candidate for relay responsibility.

Yet one more freshman, Brayden Taivassalo, had a stable rookie season, placing up bests of 52.28/1:53.28. That latter time makes him the Longhorns’ prime returning performer within the self-discipline.

Amongst incoming freshmen, the ever-versatile Cooper Lucas has been 54.18/1:56.32, however will most likely concentrate on different occasions, and Jeremy Kelly has been 54.98. These are stable instances, however don’t change the truth that any breaststroke {qualifications} and relay swims are more likely to come from the aforementioned trio are

BUTTERFLY: ★

We’re arising on the tenth anniversary of that legendary second when the Longhorns put six males into the 100 fly A-final on the 2015 NCAAs…and there’s a really actual danger they might not have anybody swimming the occasion on the NCAAs this yr.

Sam Artmann and Cole Crane are gone, leaving Alec Filipovic (46.18) as the highest returner, however nonetheless a methods away from final yr’s reduce time of 45.37. He’s additionally been 1:43.43 within the 200.

Assist could also be on the best way, within the type of two backstrokers. Kyle Peck arrives with a better of 46.99. The extra intriguing prospect, nevertheless, is one Hubert Kos. He’s been 45.59 in yards and 50.84 in LCM, with each of these instances coming in in-season meets, so it’s affordable to imagine Kos might swim 44-something comfortably in yards. He raced the 400 IM as a freshman, then shifted to the 100 again final season. It’s powerful to evaluate how possible he’s to make one other occasion lineup change, however you must assume he’s a minimum of within the combine for a relay spot.

Rising junior Ryan Branon chipped a bit extra time without work of his 200 fly final yr, enhancing from 1:43.17 to 1:42.70. is knocking on the door of an NCAA invite within the 200 after enhancing to 1:43.17 final season. Classmate Holden Smith is the opposite robust two-distance flyer, having gone 46.67/1:44.79 final yr.

IM: ★★★★★

Final yr, we needed to give this self-discipline a single star after dropping all of their 2023 scorers. This yr, this is perhaps top-of-the-line teams within the nation.

Will Modglin (photograph: Jack Spitser)

Nate Germonprez and Will Modglin every knocked two seconds off their 200 IM finest instances final yr. Germonprez’s got here in with a 1:42.82 and in the end improved to 1:40.89, good for Seventh at NCAAs. Modglin’s went from 1:43.37 to 1:41.01, however couldn’t match that point at NCAAs, ending twenty ninth with a 1:43.29. He had robust swims the remainder of the meet, so search for him to bounce again and be a scoring risk this season.

Alec Filipovic went from 1:44.60 to 1:43.44 final yr, lower than half a second away from what it took to qualify for NCAAs.

Freshmen, transfers, and returning crimson shirts might theoretically add one other six scoring swims.

Hubert Kos is the Sixth-fastest man ever within the 200 IM and is tied as Seventh-fastest ever within the 400. Even when he doesn’t swim the latter occasion, he needs to be a lock for one A-final.

David Johnston returns from his redshirt season having made the A-final within the 400 IM in every of three NCAA championships to this point.

Rex Maurer didn’t rating final yr, however his finest time (3:38.10) is nice sufficient to make the A-final. Freshman Cooper Lucas owns bests of 1:43.88/3:41.15, and whereas he’ll most likely swim the five hundred free over the 200 IM, he’s one of many uncommon males who arrive to varsity with a NCAA-scoring time within the 400.

Fifth yr Ben Sampson transfers in from Colorado Mesa College with Division I scoring instances of 1:41.92/3:40.22. Each of these instances would’ve earned Sampson a spot within the B-final final yr.

All instructed, it’s not unreasonable to counsel that the Longhorns might get 4 scoring swims in every IM occasion

DIVING: ★★½

Traditionally a power for the Longhorns, the diving program hasn’t racked up fairly as many factors the previous couple of years as they’ve earlier than. They lose Noah Duperre and his 12 factors to commencement, together with NCAA qualifier Brendan McCourt.

Nevertheless, they do convey their prime scorer, Nick Harris, who earned 13 factors throughout two occasions final yr as a sophomore. s Sophomores Tanner Braunton, who picked up some extent within the platform occasion final yr, and Pierce Brooke, who positioned twenty eighth on the platform at NCAAs return. Rising senior Manuel Borowski additionally returns after qualifying for NCAAs on the 3m final season, inserting forty second.

The diving squad grows this yr with the addition of freshmen Jacob Jones, Luke Forester, and Jacob Welsh. The latter two have worldwide expertise, highlighted by Welsh’s gold medal on the 2023 Pan American Video games.

RELAYS: ★★★★

Final yr, Texas solely scored 82 factors through relays, averaging out to 16.4 factors per relay, or between ninth and tenth, by way of end.

Texas’ 200 free relay of Will Modglin (19.54), Nate Germonprez (18.83), Cole Crane (19.08) and Camden Taylor (19.13) failed to attain, ending nineteenth with a 1:16.58. Nobody who Texas introduced in is assured to considerably transfer the needle, though placing Luke Hobson and an 18-mid cut up again on this relay would’ve moved them as much as about Twelfth final yr. There are a ton of fellows within the 19-mid vary, so it’ll be attention-grabbing to see who can become the dependable sub-19 cut up this relay might use.

The 400 free relay is in higher form, as all 4 legs from final yr’s Twelfth-place NCAA end return: Germonprez, Luke Hobson, Modglin, and Taylor. These have been the quickest 4 males on the group final yr within the particular person 100, with instances starting from 41.24 to 42.53. Hubert Kos looks like the most certainly newcomer to make an affect on this relay after splitting 41.25 on ASU’s ‘B’ relay at Pac-12s. That, plus some continued growth by the sophomore trio, might assist put the Longhorns in place to make the highest 8.

Even in a little bit of a down yr, the Longhorns had a really robust 800 free relay. Veterans Hobson and Coby Carrozza mixed with Germonprez and Taylor to take third in 6:05.33. All 4 legs return, which provides the Longhorn a really stable flooring, and the ceiling is even increased as Kos, Michael Cotter, Rex Maurer, and Aaron Shackell ought to all vie for spots on this relay as nicely.

The medley relays most likely aren’t going to be threats to win titles, however they need to be higher than final yr’s eighth and ninth place finishes. The one leg they lose is Jake Foster, who swam breast at NCAAs, however Will Scholtz’s Large 12 splits of 23.17/51.65 have been equivalent to Foster’s NCAA splits (23.15/51.66). Go forward and pencil in Scholtz for the second.

Will Modglin‘s been 20.49/44.20 on backstroke, however might he lose his relay spot to Kos, who’s even sooner? Probably, however on paper, it appears to be like like there’s a robust probability Kos might find yourself on butterfly. He’s “solely” been 45.59 within the 100, however As a few of our commenters have been discussing lately, that was an untapered time. Moreover, he took his Pac-12 200 IM out in 20.42. Subtract half a second for a flying begin, and that put Kos comfortably underneath 20.0, even with out assuming he’d be pushing more durable on a 50. With an untapered sub-51 LCM 100 fly and a sub-44 SCY 100 again, he’s most likely a protected guess for a minimum of a 44-low fly leg on the longer medley relay.

Germonprez considerably unexpectedly crammed these fly slots final yr, splitting 19.82 at Large 12s after which 20.08/45.59 at NCAAs. Shifting Kos to fly frees Germonprez to both transfer to breaststroke (the place he’s certainly improved his 52.59 from two years in the past), or cut back his relay load and concentrate on the free relays. Final yr he doubled the 200 medley and 800 free relays, as did Hobson.

Complete Stars: 26.5/40

2024-2025 OUTLOOK 

With a brand new teaching workers because the first time within the swimmers’ (and presumably even a few of their mother and father’) lifetimes, and an unimaginable inflow of expertise, the eyes of the swimming world will probably be on Texas this yr.

One attention-grabbing factor to notice is that this would be the season the Longhorns compete within the SEC. Which means this would be the first time in a really very long time that they’ll have a problem in the event that they wish to win the convention title. Bowman doesn’t appear to be the sort who will let a mere convention championship distract from the larger stage, nevertheless it’ll nonetheless be attention-grabbing to see if/how a convention slugfest impacts Texas’ conventional method to the top of the season.

Our self-discipline rankings assist inform the story of what to anticipate from Texas. They need to rack up factors within the 200 free, distance freestyle, IM, and backstroke, however the 50/100 free, breast, and fly are all at risk of not scoring in any respect. They’ll pull in some factors from diving, and the relays will probably be stable if not spectacular. That every one provides as much as a really robust group that most likely has a couple of too many holes to realistically problem for the NCAA title.

In a latest ballot, roughly 1/3 of our respondents picked Texas to win this yr. That’s most likely an unrealistic expectation. Even when the Longhorns have been to double their factors from 189 to 378, that solely would’ve put them in a tie for third with Florida final yr.

Mathematically, if the whole lot was to go practically flawlessly at NCAAs, might Texas go 15/10 individually, eke out 30 diving factors, and common eighth place throughout the relays? Certain, and if that’s the case, that will most likely put them within the hunt for the group title. Is that tremendous lifelike? In all probability not. Extra possible, the Longhorns double their level complete, make a run on the prime 4, and proceed to construct from there after 2025.

MEN’S PREVIEW INDEX: