Utilizing Superior Stats To Convert Leon Marchand’s Instances To Quick Course Meters

Courtesy: Dominique Hérailh

The French Swimming Federation has launched detailed statistics on all swimming finals on the Paris Olympics, and on this article, we’ll use them to transform Leon Marchand’s lengthy course instances into quick course meters.

Time converters exist already, however as we all know, they will produce diversified outcomes, particularly in occasions the place underwaters are king (quick course backstroke, for instance) or for swimmers who excel off the partitions.

Within the case of Leon Marchand, who’s arguably the world’s finest underwater kicker proper now, time conversions clearly don’t work correctly. Essentially the most hanging instance is the conversion of the 400 IM from SCY to LCM: 3:28.82 in SCY corresponds to three:58.19 in LCM, 4.31 seconds underneath his world report. Going the alternative method, his 4:02.50 lengthy course PB converts to three:32.70 in yards, nearly 4 seconds shy of his U.S. Open Document.

Though the performances of Marchand are well-known in LCM, they’re nearly non-existent in SCM, although that figures to alter this fall with Marchand aiming to race the three World Cup stops and finally the SC World Championships.

The potential of Marchand briefly course meters can be a wildly debated matter previous to his look at these 4 meets, and we’ll attempt to nail down what sort of performances we will anticipate—if he’s at his finest.

Methodology for changing LCM to SCM:

The time knowledge collected in Paris can be used:

• Response, Begin 15m,
• Strategy to the wall for every flip.
• Turns (time taken at 15 meters)
• Swimming Phases 25, 45, 75, 95 for each hundred meters.

For instance, within the 200 breast, we will group these stats within the following desk by supplementing it with speeds in m/s on all segments of the race.

With it being the best to transform, we’ll begin with the 200 breaststroke.

Some knowledge factors are the identical between the desk above and the conversion desk, these being the beginning and remaining values.

Others have to be transformed bearing in mind the next factors :

• The time of the primary size of SCM can be deducted from the measured velocity between 15 and 25 m, and so forth for the opposite lengths.
• For turns, we’ll contemplate that the time of the primary in LCM can be reproduced twice in SCM, the second thrice and the final two instances. That is sadly not primarily based on a measured remark however on an arbitrary determination.

As in most issues to be solved, some knowledge are identified (these of Paris), others are unknown. Among the many latter, we will point out, with out being exhaustive :

• → The OTW (“Over The Water”) distinction in swimming velocity between a 65-stroke LCM race and a 35-stroke SCY race.
• The affect of repeated turns briefly course on the velocity of the underwaters.
• One other unknown worth, though extra marginal, issues the influence of fatigue on efficiency between a run of 182.88 meters (SCY) and a run of 200 meters (SCM)

Fortuitously, the uncertainty ensuing from these unknown values could be diminished considerably. As soon as the conversion is completed in SCM, will probably be sufficient to make one other conversion in SCY, the place the performances of Marchand are well-known. The proportion distinction between the outcome transformed in SCY and the information of Marchand’s NCAA information will appropriate the primary two unknowns (distinction in swimming velocity OTW between LCM and SCM in addition to the impact of repetition of activates their speeds).

Lastly, to appropriate the third unknown we’ll take, by conference, the ratio between the distances SCY and SCM (182.88/200). This share will cut back the beforehand calculated variance coefficient.

200 Breast

Observe that on this occasion, it isn’t the time at 15 meters that was taken for the beginning however the time of the particular size of the underwater because it exceeds 15 meters.

The 1:49.10 conversion to SCY reveals a 2.75-second hole from Marchand’s NCAA Document of 1:46.35—or 2.52% (coefficient of -0.0252). As we noticed above, the ultimate correction can be to scale back this coefficient so as to combine the parameter relative to the least effort of a race in SCY vs SCM given the gap distinction: -0.0252 x182.88 /200= -0.023

The time transformed, assuming Marchand is in the identical kind as Paris 2024, can be 120.43 x (1- 0.23) = 117.66 or 1:57.66. The world report of Russian Kirill Prigoda, 2:00.16, can be damaged by two and a half seconds.

In 2018, when Prigoda broke the SCM world report, he went 2:08.63 in lengthy course meters, almost three seconds slower than Marchand’s 2:05.85.

This tells us a time within the 1:57.5-1:58.5 vary for Marchand can be an correct prediction, as soon as once more assuming peak Olympic kind which we will’t depend on.

200 Fly

On this occasion, Marchand has little reference time in SCY. His finest time was set in 2022 when he clocked 1:39.57. That 12 months, he swam the LCM 200 fly in 1:53.37. In Paris, he set a brand new Olympic Document of 1:51.21.

If he theoretically dropped the identical period of time within the yards occasion, he would go 1:37.41 (taking off 2.16 seconds in two years like he did in LCM).

For my part, this worth isn’t totally correct for varied causes. One straightforward instance to level out is that Ilya Kharun went 1:37.93 this previous season in yards whereas ending 1.59 seconds behind Marchand in Paris. Two reference values can due to this fact be moderately taken: one equivalent to the minimal doable (1:37.41) and one other near the very best of its present potential (1:36.50).

With the identical methodology, the conversion with out correction would lead to 1:47.71 for SCM races and 1:37.66 for SCY races.

By making use of the correction coefficients in keeping with the ideas already acknowledged, we get hold of 1:47.46 in common worth and 1:46.54 in excessive worth.

Solely on this second speculation, the world report of Tomoru Honda can be overwhelmed by 0.31 sec.

The time vary to contemplate might be between 1:46.50 and 1:47.50.

200 IM

The 200 IM isn’t a straightforward race to transform, as some knowledge collected within the lengthy course occasion aren’t transferrable into both quick course format. That is significantly the case with sure turns (turns with arms, turns with ft) and wall approaches. Knowledge from different races (200 fly, 200 breast, 400 IM) that had been in step with the lacking quantity had been used as an alternative.

The most effective reference time of Marchand on the 200 IM SCY is 1:36.34.

Changing with out correction would give 1:49.91 for SCM races and 1:39.48 for SCY races.

By making use of the correction coefficients in keeping with the ideas already acknowledged, we get hold of 1:46.74.

Ryan Lochte’s world report of 1:49.63 can be damaged by a whopping 2.89 seconds.

That places Marchand’s anticipated time within the 1:46.75 to 1:47.75 vary. Nonetheless, it’s essential to do not forget that Lochte (1:54.00) continues to be quicker than Marchand in lengthy course.

400 IM

The info measured in Paris isn’t fairly the identical within the 400 IM as it’s for the others, apart from the beginning and turns. The explanation issues aren’t as precise is as a result of the gap swimmers journey underwater tends to lower all through the race. Nonetheless, this isn’t essentially the case for Marchand, so I went in and took the actual time and distances of his underwaters.

The intermediate cut up factors are barely modified from the opposite occasions (begin, 25, 45 50, 55, 75, 95, 100), and just like the 200 IM, changes had been made for the turns.

The most effective reference time of Marchand on the 400 IM SCY is 3:28.82.

The conversion with out correction would lead to 3:53.29 for SCM and three:31.33 for SCY.

Earlier than the corrections had been even made, Daiya Seto’s world report of three:54.81 can be completely shattered. The corrected outcome can be 3:50.45 for Marhcnad. The world report can be damaged by greater than 4 seconds.

Anyplace within the 3:50.5-3:51.5 can be the vary we’d see from Marchand if at his finest.

Conclusion

Primarily based on his performances in Paris 2024, three SCM world information appear to be inside attain of Marchand, whereas a fourth is feasible however far much less clear.

The 200 fly report appears to be the toughest to interrupt. The shortage of current performances from Marchand briefly course yards doesn’t enable for fine-tuning estimates.