2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES
WOMEN’S 400 Particular person Medley — BY THE NUMBERS:
The Ladies’s 400 IM, from simply three years in the past in Tokyo to simply days away from the beginning of the subsequent video games (ie once you , has undergone an enormous change. Not solely are we speaking concerning the rise of teenybopper phenom Summer time McIntosh, who has introduced the World Document to new heights (though if we’re being literal, it could even be to new lows, proper?)
Three years in the past, Japan’s Yui Ohashi swam her technique to an Olympic gold medal on dwelling soil. She took over the lead by the 250 flip and by no means seemed again, posting a time of 4:32.08. American Emma Weyant tried her finest to shut the hole out splitting the Japanese swimmers by 1.38 on the final 50 alone, however was in an excessive amount of of a deficit as she completed in 4:32.76, which was good for silver. Behind Weyant, her compatriot Hali Flickinger, a butterfly specialist who branched out into the mid-frees in addition to the 400 IM, nabbed the bronze in 4:34.90.
Nonetheless, regardless of a shortened quad cycle, of the medalist, solely Weyant has returned to the Olympics. In reality, Weyant is the one returning finalist, and of the 18 swimmers within the occasion, solely three seem on the entry lists: Weyant, Sara Franceschi (ninth in Tokyo), and Anja Crevar (tenth in Tokyo).
A part of the change comes from retirements as bronze medalist Flickinger and seventh place finisher Aimee Willmott have retired, one other from swimmers coping with breaks and accidents like former world file holder Katinka Hosszu, Mireia Belmonte, and Ohashi failing to qualify.
A 3rd and extra prescient subject is that the occasion has seen a surge of younger expertise come to the forefront and take cost of the occasion. Foremost of them is Canada’s McIntosh, who made her Olympic debut on the age of 14.
McIntosh received the occasion on the 2022 Worlds in 4:32.04 and just some months later broke the World Junior Document and Americas file on the 2022 Commonwealth Video games, the place she posted a time of 4:29.01. The subsequent yr, she smashed the world file on the Canadian Trials, changing into the primary and solely swimmer to interrupt 4:26, recording a brand new best-of 4:25.87. She picked up one other World gold in Fukuoka, successful in 4:27.11, which brings us to the current time.
“Summertime”
(NO REGRETS)
Getting into this season, McIntosh swam an informal 4:29.96 on the US Open this previous December, her then-sixth-fastest time, to win by almost eight seconds over Israel’s Anastasia Gorbenko. Quick-forward to 2024 and the Canadian Olympic Trials, and expectations have been excessive on {the teenager}. The earlier yr, she set the World Document, and whereas her qualification for the Olympics was by no means unsure, questions remained as as to if she was totally rested. After posting the quickest time on the planet within the 400 free however publicly stating she was sad with it, McIntosh’s outlook on breaking the file appeared low.
However she proved everybody and maybe herself a little bit fallacious as she demolished her file by over a second, recording an unfathomable time of 4:24.38.
| MCINTOSH – 2024 (New WR) | MCINTOSH – 2023 (Former WR) | HOSSZU – 2016 (Former Former WR) | |
| 100 | 59.18 | 59.47 | 1:00.91 |
| 200 | 2:06.30 (1:07.12) | 2:06.39 (1:06.92) | 2:08.39 (1:07.48) |
| 300 | 3:23.43 (1:17.13) | 3:25.31 (1:18.92) | 3:24.50 (1:16.11) |
| 400 | 4:24.38 (1:00.95) | 4:25.86 (1:00.56) | 4:26.36 (1:01.86) |
A lot of the distinction between her world data might be seen in her breaststroke splits. The differential was 1.79, and whereas she was slower on the freestyle, the differential was solely .39.
The brand new time not solely makes her the primary swimmer underneath 4:25 however the quickest swimmer by additionally two full seconds, and when in comparison with swimmers within the Olympic subject, she is evident by 7.03. In Paris, McIntosh is entered within the 400 Free, 200 Fly, and 200 IM as nicely (along with any attainable relays), however with the 400 IM occurring on the third day and with a full day’s relaxation after the 400 free, McIntosh ought to face no struggles in successful the gold medal.
One may have spent much more time speaking about Summer time McIntosh, however her outcomes communicate for themselves, and as a lot as she has modified the occasion, in actuality it hasn’t modified all that a lot.
Genesis/Realiti
On the 2012 Olympics, the primary after the ban on tremendous fits, China’s Ye Shiwen dropped a hammer of a final 100, splitting 58.68 to file a brand new world file of 4:28.43. In 2016, Hosszu dropped greater than two seconds off that mark to file a time of 4:26.36. 2021, successful time might be thought-about an outlier, and whereas the development from 2008 to 2012 to 2016 to 2021 to 2024 is downward, the occasions for silver and gold have been quite stagnant, if not transferring in the wrong way.
| Olympics | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2021 |
| Gold | Stephanie Rice – 4:29.45 WR | Ye Shiwen – 4:28.43 WR | Katinka Hosszu – 4:26.36 WR | Yui Ohasi – 4:32.08 |
| Silver | Kirsty Coventry – 4:29.89 | Elizabeth Beisel – 4:31.27 | Maya DiRado – 4:31.15 | Emma Weyant – 4:32.76 |
| Bronze | Katie Hoff – 4:31.71 | Li Xuanxu – 4:32.91 | Mireia Belmonte – 4:32.39 | Hali Flickinger – 4:34.90 |
To be truthful, it’s powerful to completely discern if the occasion is stagnant apart from McIntosh, because the 2022 Worlds, weren’t attended by each nation, with each Commonwealth Video games and European Champions occurring that very same summer season and with the 2024 Worlds additionally being sparsely attended. Nonetheless, the 2023 silver and bronze medal-winning occasions of 4:31.41 and 4:32.30 would fall proper in step with the chart above.
Katie Grimes (photograph: Jack Spitser)
Nonetheless, that stated, these medalists from 2023 are 18 and 21, respectively, and perhaps can push the occasion to new ranges throughout the board as an alternative of simply on the high.
Like McIntosh, Katie Grimes burst onto the scene at 15 when she certified for the US Olympic workforce within the 800 free, ending fourth in Tokyo. Grimes, who appeared at first to be a distance and open water swimmer, added the 400 IM to her repertoire and received back-to-back silver medals on the 2022 and 2023 Worlds, recording a time of 4:31.41 in Fukuoka to develop into the 4th quickest American of all time.
Getting into this season and the Olympic Trials, Grimes, who was the primary American swimmer to qualify for the Olympics, courtesy of her open-water performances, was a favourite to make the US workforce. She was 4:32.45 a month earlier than trials and had an enormous lead based mostly on season-best occasions over her competitors. Nonetheless, Grimes was simply 4:35.00 at Trials, a far cry from her time from Worlds and slower than the 4:33.80 she swam on the US Nationals the summer season earlier than a time interval by which her coach stated she wouldn’t be totally tapered till these Olympics.
The 4:35 could possibly be a trigger for concern, however probably, she swam simply sufficient to make the workforce within the occasion. Within the extra aggressive occasions at Trials, she swam private bests within the 200 free and 200 again, so with a lot much less swimming on faucet, she must be extra rested to deal with the IM.
World Aquatics Championships
Fukuoka (JPN)
14-30 JULY 2023
Final summer season’s bronze medalist, Jenna Forrester, had the same expertise at her trials. In 2022, Forrester completed seventh in a time of 4:42.39 however exploded to a private finest and bronze medal in Fukuoka, touching the wall in 4:32.30.
After initially showing on the roster for the 2024 World, Forrester withdrew from the meet and, coming into the Australia trials in early June, appeared to be on observe to make the Olympics in a number of occasions.
Within the 200 IM, she was the 2nd seed however added shut to a few seconds to her entry time. Within the 200 free, she added over six seconds to her seed time, coming into because the tenth seed however falling to thirty fourth. With the 400 IM on the final day, Forrester pulled it, swimming 4:38.16 within the finals to complete behind 19-year-old Ella Ramsay‘s 4:36.56, simply barely clipping the Swim Australia mandated time of 4:38.53.
Ramsay herself could possibly be a contender for the finals. Along with the PB within the 400, she swam a brand new finest of two:09.32 within the 200 IM and received the 200 breast in 2:22.87, an enormous new PB of shut the three seconds, to deliver her whole of particular person occasions to a few. Whereas it will likely be her first Olympics, Ramsay does have worldwide competitors underneath her belt. In 2022, when Australia despatched squads to each Worlds and Commonwealths, Ramsay made the semifinals of the 200 IM in Budapest, ending fifteenth.
Silver Lining
Whereas McIntosh is the heavy favourite, maybe the heaviest favourite amongst all the person occasions, the spots for the opposite medals are up for grabs. Exterior of Grimes, no different swimmer has been underneath 4:32.
Emma Weyant (photograph: Jack Spitser)
Taking a look at current medalists, and particularly the 2024 Worlds, which noticed a trio of latest faces, the minor medals could possibly be received by anybody and 2021 silver medalist Weyant appears to be like poised to repeat on the rostrum.After the silver in Tokyo, Weyant, who now swims collegiately for the Florida Gators, earned a bronze on the 2022 Worlds, albeit greater than three seconds slower than her Tokyo time. 2023 Summer time Nationals, noticed her disqualified on this occasion and fail to qualify for the Worlds workforce.
Getting into the 2024 US Trials, Weyant gave the impression to be on a mission. She certified first into the finals, posting a prelims time of 4:38.96 after which reducing it to 4:35.56 within the finals, ending simply half a second behind Grimes. Weyant really led Grimes by half a second on the 300 flip, however was previous within the final 50.
Weyant’s time on the Trials was slower than her trials time from 2021, however like Grimes, she had earlier within the season put up a number of private bests. In yards, on the NCAA, Weyant put up PBs within the 500 and 1650 free in addition to within the 400 IM, putting 2nd within the IM and 500.
With a smaller subject in 2024 and all of the 2023 medalists absent, three swimmers took the many of the alternative.
FREYA COLBERT courtesy of LEN European Aquatics
Main the cost was Freya Colbert. The Brit, who completed fifth on the 2023 Worlds in 4:35.28, was a little bit slower, ending in 4:37.14, however in a time worthy of the gold medal. Maybe a confidence enhance, or maybe only a signal of her preparation, however Colbert exploded to a brand new private finest on the British Trials in April. Her time of 4:34.01 simply received the occasion, beating out Katie Shanahan by over two and a half seconds, and now ranks the 4th quickest time on the planet this season.
Behind her, in Doha, Israel’s Anastasia Gorbenko swam a private finest and nationwide file of 4:37.36, throwing her title into competition for the Olympics. Nonetheless, like Colbert, she has additional lowered that point, swimming the fifth quickest time within the season, recording a mark of 4:34.87. Over the course of the Mare Nostrum tour, she set new marks throughout a number of occasions, together with each IMs and the 200 again.
Whereas Colbert and Gorbenko will compete in a number of occasions and each will likely be key relay legs for his or her groups, with the 400 IM occurring early within the meet, neither must be an excessive amount of affected by busy schedules.
In Doha, Italy’s Sara Franceschi was simply half a second behind Gorbenko, successful the bronze in 4:37.86 . Of the three, she has essentially the most worldwide expertise within the occasion, having positioned ninth in 2021 and sixth in 2023. She has a private better of 4:35.98 from the Italian Nationwide Champions in 2023 however was unable to duplicate that point at Worlds. Not too long ago, on the Sette Colli meet in Rome, she was 4:38.77, beating Colbert by shut to 2 seconds, but when her season finest is barely 4:37.89, the Italian will battle to make the ultimate until she assaults the prelims.
Younger Blood
Mio Narita. Picture: Jon Reiter
Whereas they don’t have the pedigree of McIntosh and Grimes, Japan’s Mio Narita and Hungary’s Vivien Jackl, aged 17 and 15, will look to make a splash on the worldwide degree. Narita, the elder of the 2, received the 400 IM at each the 2022 Junior Pan-Pacs (4:36.79) and at Junior Worlds in 4:37.48.
Final summer season, in entrance of a house crowd, she certified for the ultimate in third in a time of 4:38.05 however struggled within the remaining, ending in a time of 4:42.14. Within the lead-up to those video games, Narita positioned third on the Asian Video games, in a time of 4:38.77, behind Yu Yiting and Ageha Tanigawa. Yu, who swims for China, shouldn’t be entered within the occasion, and whereas Tanigawa acquired the higher of Narita in Hangzhou, Narita acquired the sting in Toyko at their Olympic Trials again in March. Narita’s time of 4:35.40 stands as a brand new PB and the seventh quickest efficiency this season, whereas Tanigawa’s 4:35.60 additionally clocks in as a brand new PB and the tenth quickest this season.
The youngest swimmer on this subject is Jackl. At simply 15, she already has a cadre of accolades to her title. She received her first medal at 13, successful bronze on the 2022 European Juniors. In 2023, she upgraded to gold and repeated the feat once more on the 2024 version. On the senior degree, she claimed silver within the occasion on the 2024 Europeans in a time of 4:38.96, behind solely Gorbenko, whereas additionally swimming her technique to the gold medal within the 1500.
Whereas these occasions are spectacular, they pale compared to the 4:34.98 she swam on the Hungarian Championships this previous April and rank her at present sixth on the planet.
The Verdict
It’s a small subject and, subsequently, a smaller preview, however that doesn’t imply it is not going to be eventful. McIntosh may win this occasion whereas swimming at 90% and it will likely be probably her in opposition to the clock. With the occasion occurring earlier within the week, she could not push the race all-out and it could not be shocking to see her fall wanting the World Document.
Kaylee McKeown didn’t enter the occasion regardless of having a PB and the #2 time on the planet this season of 4:28.22, and subsequently, silver probably falls to Grimes, who occupied the identical place in 2022 and 2023. Grimes’ PB shouldn’t be that a lot forward of Forrester however has confirmed herself extra within the occasion and has seemed the higher of the 2 this season. Forrester is an enormous query mark. Was her bronze final summer season a blimp and she or he’s come again all the way down to earth, or was Trials only a misstep? Forrester, of your complete subject, has essentially the most volatility; she may compete with Grimes for the silver, or she may miss the ultimate altogether. Whereas the previous appears extra probably than the later, others behind her have had higher seasons up to now and sure will leap forward of her.
The combat for bronze will likely be powerful, however regardless of middling outcomes at Trials, Weyant appears to be like poised to earn a second journey to the Olympic Podium forward of Colbert and Gorbenko. Gorkenko swam on the European Championships and had a busy and profitable run of PBs on the Mare Nostrum, however with a lot racing, it’ll be attention-grabbing to see if she will keep that type and earn her first Olympic medal. The identical might be stated of Jackl, who tackled the Hungarian Championships, Euros, and Junior Euros all this spring and summer season. With so many meets, can she put collectively a powerful efficiency and be part of the ranks of teenybopper phenoms on this occasion, or will all of the racing and strain of the Olympics get to her?
I’ve talked about it earlier than, primarily in relay previews, however with a small beginning subject and with a large disparity of time between the chief and the pack, McIntosh will cruise within the prelims, and some others could possibly shut it down over the previous couple of meters, however all of them must be cautious of resting an excessive amount of within the morning. With no semis and on the skin trying, any swimmer ranked ninth down, and even these within the fifth to eighth vary, would possibly push the tempo within the morning to make sure a spot within the remaining. It solely took 4:39.4 to make the finals in Fukuoka and 4:37.37 on the final Olympics. And with 14 entrants underneath that Tokyo mark, then any variety of swimmers may make the ultimate and our predictions from sixth to eighth are actually not locks, nor for that matter are the swimmers ranked2-5, however these 4 swimmers have the pedigree and racing expertise to have the ability to make the ultimate.
Nonetheless it really works out, what is thought is that there will likely be not less than two new Olympic medalists within the occasion. With such a younger crop of expertise, hopefully, they’ll push one another and the occasion to new heights.
SWIMSWAM’S PICKS
Darkish Horse: Ella Jansen (Can) – The Tennessee commit had a tough Canadian Trials, lacking out on the finals of the 400 free, and whereas she positioned 2nd on this occasion, her time of 4:38.88 was exterior of the OQT of 4:38.53. Regardless of this, Jansen was nonetheless named to the workforce as she had achieved the OQT at Junior Worlds. The 18-year-old’s entry time of 4:37.35 ranks her simply 14th out of the 16 rivals within the subject, however ought to she bounce again from her poor Trials efficiency, she may remaining.
