This text initially appeared within the 2024 Olympic Preview version of SwimSwam Journal, courtesy of writer James Sutherland. Subscribe to the SwimSwam Journal right here.
Be aware that this text was written previous to some main nationwide Olympic Trials meets, together with Australia and the US.
Katie Ledecky
Girls’s 1500 Free: 1/20 (95.2 p.c)
It could take one thing unexpected for Katie Ledecky to not defend Olympic gold within the ladies’s 1500 free. The inaugural champion of the occasion in Tokyo, Ledecky owns the 17 quickest swims ever and has been 20 seconds sooner than the next-fastest energetic swimmer, Simona Quadarella. Quadarella gained gold within the occasion on the 2019 World Championships after Ledecky withdrew as a result of sickness, and it will take one thing related for Ledecky to not discover her manner again to the highest of the rostrum.
Katie Ledecky
Girls’s 800 Free: 1/4 (80.0 p.c)
The 800 free is the same story to the 1500 for Ledecky, although she’s a lot much less of a lock given her competitors. It would sound like loads, however each Li Bingjie and Ariarne Titmus had been inside 5 seconds of Ledecky on the 2023 World Championships, and Summer season McIntosh is coming off handing Ledecky her first loss within the occasion in 13 years in February. McIntosh went 8:11.39, turning into the #2 performer in historical past, and if she focuses on the occasion for Paris, it stands to motive Ledecky can have a battle on her palms. Which may not be the case with McIntosh having a schedule battle with the 200 IM, and Ledecky continues to be undefeated within the occasion on the worldwide stage.
Kaylee McKeown
Girls’s 200 Again: 1/3 (75.0 p.c)
Kaylee McKeown has an unblemished report within the 200 again ever for the reason that 2019 World Championships, the place American Regan Smith stunningly broke the longstanding world report with the primary two sub-2:04 swims in historical past. McKeown was the distant runner-up to Smith however has gone untouched in 5 years since. McKeown gained Olympic gold in Tokyo after which reeled off consecutive world titles whereas breaking Smith’s world report in March 2023. On the 2023 Worlds, McKeown edged out Smith by slim margins within the 50 and 100 again however ran away with the 200 by multiple second. As of April, each swimmers had already been within the 2:03s in 2024, so Smith clearly has a shot regardless of McKeown’s current dominance.
Kaylee McKeown
Girls’s 100 Again: 1/2 (66.6 p.c)
This race will even be a McKeown/Smith showdown. There have been 34 swims underneath 58 seconds in swimming historical past, and 31 of them have been accomplished by both McKeown (16) or Smith (15). McKeown sat out of the occasion on the 2022 World Championships to key in on the 200 IM, opening the door for Smith to win the title. In 2023, McKeown topped Smith by 1 / 4 of a second on the World Championships after which introduced her world report right down to 57.33 on the World Cup circuit just a few months later. Smith, who matched her quickest swim since 2019 in March (57.64), may simply win, however McKeown is hard to wager in opposition to given her capacity to carry out when it counts.
Tatjana Smith (Schoenmaker)
Girls’s 200 Breast: 1/2 (66.6 p.c)
Tatjana Smith‘s (nee Schoenmaker) standing because the clear-cut favourite for gold within the ladies’s 200 breast hinged on the presence of Evgeniia Chikunova, the Russian teenager who shattered Smith’s world report final yr by 1.40 seconds in 2:17.55. Chikunova didn’t apply for impartial standing with a purpose to compete in Paris, leaving Smith because the frontrunner within the occasion. The South African broke an eight-year-old world report in Tokyo in 2:18.95, and after the one sub-2:20 swims of her profession got here within the three rounds at these Video games, she dropped a time of two:19.01 in April on the South African Nationwide Championships. That reaffirms the 26-year-old’s standing because the gold medal favourite, however she’ll should cope with American Kate Douglass and Dutchwoman Tes Schouten, who’ve each been sub-2:20 in 2024.
Ariarne Titmus
Girls’s 400 Free: 4/6 (60.0 p.c)
Essentially the most extremely anticipated race of the 2023 World Championships was a non-event. With reigning Olympic champion Ariarne Titmus, defending world champion Katie Ledecky and newly minted world report holder Summer season McIntosh set to go head-to-head for the primary time in two years (and the primary time since McIntosh developed into arguably the very best swimmer on the planet) the race was predicted to doubtlessly problem the “Race of the Century” we noticed in 2004 between Ian Thorpe, Pieter van den Hoogenband, and Michael Phelps within the males’s 200 free in Athens. Nicely, a lot for that. Titmus obliterated the sector, breaking McIntosh’s world report by seven-tenths of a second in 3:55.38. Ledecky was the distant runner-up in 3:58.73, and McIntosh fell outdoors the rostrum, including three and a half seconds. Titmus has caught flack at occasions for sitting out of main meets — she picks her spots, however she doesn’t typically miss. There have solely been six swims in historical past underneath 3:57, and 4 of them have come from Titmus. Ledecky hasn’t damaged 3:58 since Tokyo, and McIntosh has solely accomplished so as soon as, granted it was the #2 swim in historical past (3:56.08). With that, Titmus continues to be a giant favourite, having crushed Ledecky three straight occasions on the massive stage between the 2019 and 2023 World Championships and the Tokyo Olympics. McIntosh figures to be Titmus’ greatest risk, particularly since she’s constantly enhancing, however the odds stay on the Australian’s facet.
Ariarne Titmus
Girls’s 200 Free: 2/1 (33.3 p.c)
Whereas Titmus is the favourite within the 400 free, it’s her countrywoman Mollie O’Callaghan who holds that distinction within the 200 free. After she was the silver medalist on the 2022 World Championships behind China’s Yang Junxuan, O’Callaghan beat Titmus head-to-head on the 2023 Worlds, breaking Federica Pellegrini’s super-suited world report in addition in a time of 1:52.85. Titmus was an in depth runner-up in 1:53.01, a brand new private finest and the third-fastest swim ever, and the defending champion continues to be the proprietor of 4 of the six quickest occasions ever (and the quickest relay leg ever — 1:52.41). However along with O’Callaghan, there’s additionally Summer season McIntosh and Siobhan Haughey in rivalry with a number of 1:53s underneath their belts. So with a purpose to defend, Titmus will should be at her very best, and even that may not be sufficient.
Zhang Yufei
Girls’s 200 Fly: 3/1 (25.0 p.c)
Zhang Yufei steamrolled her technique to gold within the 200 fly in Tokyo, posting the quickest time we’d seen since 2009 (and #3 all-time) in 2:03.86. Within the three years since, we’ve seen Summer season McIntosh win back-to-back world titles, and Regan Smith come inside .01 of Zhang’s time at 2:03.87, whereas Zhang has been up and down and, at occasions, seemed to be extra targeted on the shorter occasions. She got here again round to the 200 fly in 2023, however nonetheless, her quickest swim since Tokyo is 2:05.57, properly wanting what Smith and McIntosh (2:04.06) are able to. That places Zhang at the very least third on the depth chart, however we are able to’t ignore her capacity to ship within the large moments. Smith has been inconsistent in main meets, and McIntosh’s daunting occasion schedule figures to be taxing.
Maggie MacNeil
Girls’s 100 Fly: 4/1 (20.0 p.c)
Probably the greatest races of the final decade unfolded in Tokyo within the ladies’s 100 fly. Three years later, the highest 4 occasions from the Olympic closing nonetheless rank among the many 12 quickest performances ever. Torri Huske was 1 / 4 of a second shy of the world report and didn’t medal. Getting her palms on the wall first and incomes the excellence of being Olympic champion was Maggie MacNeil, coming via underneath stress for the second straight time after she upset Sarah Sjostrom for gold on the 2019 World Championships. MacNeil, 24, opted to solely race relays on the 2022 Worlds — although she did high Olympic bronze medalist Emma McKeon for gold on the Commonwealth Video games — after which was the silver medalist to Tokyo runner-up Zhang Yufei on the 2023 World Championships. MacNeil has a penchant for developing clutch however faces a frightening activity in repeating as champion in Paris. Huske has established herself because the early frontrunner after swimming 55.68 in April, a time MacNeil has solely been faster than as soon as — her Olympic-winning 55.59. Any one of many high 4 from Tokyo can realistically win, and what Gretchen Walsh did within the NCAA places her within the dialog as properly.
