This text initially appeared within the 2024 Olympic Preview version of SwimSwam Journal, courtesy of writer James Sutherland. Subscribe to the SwimSwam Journal right here.
Coming into the Tokyo Olympic Video games, there was uncertainty about, each on the earth and within the swimming-verse.
Within the lead-up, we did our greatest to gauge the probabilities the champions from Rio had at defending their titles, similar to we’re doing for Paris.
Coming into the 2024 Video games, we’ve a extra correct pulse on the place everyone seems to be. Each with the brief three-year window between Olympics and the jam-packed worldwide schedule we’ve had in comparison with the desolate COVID calendar.
The five-year hole from Rio to Tokyo resulted in not too many repeating champions, with us providing some odds that had been possibly too favorable.
Beneath, discover the percentages we gave every swimmer of defending, and the way issues panned out for them three years in the past.
KATIE LEDECKY, WOMEN’S 800 FREE
ODDS: 1/5 (83.3 %)
RESULT: GOLD
Ledecky efficiently made it three in a row within the 800 free, however it was so much nearer than we thought it was going to be. The American was nowhere close to her finest in Tokyo, however nonetheless emerged with the gold medal in 8:12.57, edging out Ariarne Titmus (8:13.83).
ADAM PEATY, MEN’S 100 BREAST
ODDS: 1/5 (83.3 %)
RESULT: GOLD
Peaty wouldn’t be denied a second consecutive gold medal within the males’s 100 breast. Though Dutchman Arno Kamminga joined Peaty within the sub-58 membership previous to the Video games (and went 57.80 within the prelims), Peaty received gold by greater than six-tenths in a time of 57.37.
LILLY KING, WOMEN’S 100 BREAST
ODDS: 1/3 (75.0 %)
RESULT: BRONZE
Lilly King was a dominant pressure within the 100 breast previous to Tokyo, going undefeated within the occasion popping out of the Rio Video games with consecutive world titles and a brand new world file. She was challenged by upstart teenager Lydia Jacoby on the U.S. Olympic Trials, after which within the Olympic closing, it was Jacoby who snagged the gold medal, going a time (1:04.95) slower than what King went on the Trials (1:04.79) and what Tatjana Smith (Schoenmaker) went within the Tokyo prelims (1:04.82).
KATINKA HOSSZU, WOMEN’S 400 IM
ODDS: 1/2 (66.7 %)
RESULT: fifth
Within the 2021 Olympic Preview Challenge, we stated that “a robust, younger discipline is nipping at (Hosszu’s) heels” within the 400 IM, however it might nonetheless “take an enormous efficiency (Yui Ohashi?) to dethrone.” Because it seems, Ohashi received gold and age caught as much as Hosszu, who was effectively off the swims she had been churning out in earlier years.
GREGORIO PALTRINIERI, MEN’S 1500 FREE
ODDS: 1/2 (66.7 %)
RESULT: 4th
Paltrinieri misplaced his world title within the 1500 free in 2019, however reasserted himself as the person to beat in Tokyo when he logged the second-fastest time in historical past in 2020, clocking 14:33.10. The Italian was dealt a troublesome hand within the Olympic lead-up, combating off mono only one month out of the Video games, and because of this he light to fourth. It means nothing within the grand scheme of issues, however his 2020 time was greater than six seconds sooner than what received gold.
SARAH SJOSTROM, WOMEN’S 100 FLY
ODDS: 2/1 (33.3 %)
RESULT: seventh
There was uncertainty about whether or not or not Sjostrom would even race the 100 fly in Tokyo after elbow surgical procedure early within the yr stored her out of the water for an prolonged time period and prevented her from swimming butterfly even longer. Sjostrom ended up racing it, and had an incredible swim within the heats, however even when she had matched that within the closing, she would’ve solely been fifth after we noticed 4 ladies come inside 1 / 4 of a second of the world file. Maggie MacNeil, who beat Sjostrom on the 2019 Worlds, emerged with gold.
RYAN MURPHY, MEN’S 100 BACK
ODDS: 2/1 (33.3 %)
RESULT: BRONZE
We stated Murphy would should be again below 52 seconds to have an opportunity at one other gold within the males’s 100 again, and that checked out as Russians (representing the Russian Olympic Committee) Evgeny Rylov (51.98) and Kliment Kolesnikov (52.00) went 1-2 and Murphy settled for bronze in 52.19. With the Russian absence in Paris, Murphy has an excellent probability of reclaiming his title.
PERNILLE BLUME, WOMEN’S 50 FREE
ODDS: 7/1 (12.5 %)
RESULT: BRONZE
The ladies’s 50 free was projected to be a shootout between 5 – 6 ladies in Tokyo, and although Blume wasn’t the frontrunner based mostly on current performances, she was within the hunt. Emma McKeon ended up profitable gold by a comparatively vast margin, although Blume carried out about as anticipated and snagged bronze.
KYLE CHALMERS, MEN’S 100 FREE
ODDS: 6/4 (40.0 %)
RESULT: SILVER
In 2021, we stated the lads’s 100 free was near a coinflip between two-time world champion Caeleb Dressel and defending Olympic champion Kyle Chalmers, and that’s how the race turned out. On the 2019 Worlds, Dressel edged Chalmers by 12 one-hundredths, after which two years later in Tokyo, his margin of victory was minimize in half. Dressel received gold in a time of 47.02, whereas Chalmers claimed silver in 47.08.
JOSEPH SCHOOLING, MEN’S 100 FLY
ODDS: 200/1 (0.5 %)
RESULT: forty fourth
Education continues to be Singapore’s solely Olympic champion in historical past, however after profitable gold in Rio and beating his idol Michael Phelps, his motivation slowly dimmed, particularly as soon as his collegiate profession on the College of Texas was over. Education’s time from the prelims in Tokyo (53.12) was greater than three and a half seconds slower than the world file Caeleb Dressel set en path to gold (49.45).
