Will We Lastly Get The Race We Anticipated In The Ladies’s 200 IM?

2024 Olympic Video games

• July 27 to August 3, 2024
• Paris, France
• Paris La Protection Enviornment
• LCM (50m)

BY THE NUMBERS — WOMEN’S 200 INDIVIDUAL MEDLEY

• World File: Katinka Hosszu, Hungary — 2:06.12 (2015)
• World Junior File: Summer time McIntosh — 2:06.89 (2023)
• Olympic File: Katinka Hosszu, Hungary — 2:06.58 (2016)
• 2023 World Champion: Kate Douglass, United States — 2:07.17 (2022)

Alright, let’s do this once more.

Final yr, the ladies’s 200 IM race on the 2023 World Championships was billed to be a must-see showdown, with prime contenders Summer time McIntosh, Kaylee McKeown, Kate Douglass, and Alex Walsh all being inside 0.3 seconds of one another. Nonetheless, issues when awry when McIntosh dropped the occasion attributable to a schedule battle and McKeown obtained disqualified within the semi-final. The race ended up simply being a battle of the People between Douglass and Walsh, one thing that we’ve already seen many instances up to now.

This time round, all 4 contenders are again, with no schedule conflicts to get in the best way of the race (and hopefully no DQs). The highest instances have gotten even quicker since final yr, and so has the sphere. A yr faraway from when this authentic showdown was set to happen for the primary time, what do the swimmers have in retailer?

As soon as extra, let’s break down the highest 4, one after the other.

Summer time McIntosh

Final yr, McIntosh entered Worlds as the favourite to win, being the one swimmer within the area to go underneath 2:07. Now, McKeown and Douglass have joined her within the 2:06 membership, and McIntosh’s finest time of two:06.89 makes her simply the third seed. That point from final yr remains to be her private finest, however she’s been 2:07-low sufficient instances this yr for us to imagine that she’s nonetheless able to replicating that point in Paris.

However McIntosh’s biggest benefit is that as a 17-year-old, she’s obtained the best upside. Simply this yr, she dropped 1.63 seconds off her personal world document within the 400 IM, which signifies that she’s obtained extra room for enchancment in her different occasions as properly.

Regardless that Douglass has break up sub-30 earlier than, McIntosh has the quickest closing velocity out of the sphere by far and is able to ending quick even whereas placing collectively a powerful first 150. Quite the opposite, she’s additionally the one prime contender that’s at the moment incapable of splitting sub-37 in breaststroke, which is by far her weakest stroke. So more than likely, she’ll be far behind going into the ultimate lap, and must run down the likes of Douglass, Walsh, and McKeown in minimal time to win.

Previous to this 200 IM race, McIntosh can have already raced not less than 2,200 meters individually (assuming she doesn’t race the 200 free), and that doesn’t even account for her potential relay duties. That’s greater than the space that Douglass (900 meters), McKeown (900 meters), and Walsh (0 meters) will race individually mixed. The damage-and-tear that she can have endured is similar to when she raced the 400 IM on the finish of the 2022 and 2023 World Championships — she added not less than a second within the occasion at each meets. So although she’s obtained probably the most room for enchancment as a young person, her workload might hinder her from being at her finest.

PB Splits:

Kate Douglass

PB Splits:

Douglass’s benefit is that she has the expertise of getting her hand on the wall first. She’s received the 200 IM on the final three main worldwide world championship meets (2022 Brief Course Worlds, 2023 Lengthy Course Worlds, 2024 Lengthy Course Worlds), and though McKeown and McIntosh have been racing apart her at 2023 or 2024 Worlds, figuring out find out how to get her hand on the wall first will give her a leg up.

Since profitable these World titles although, Douglass has simply gotten even quicker. On the U.S. Olympic trials, she swam a time of two:06.79, enhancing upon her finest time of two:07.05 to get underneath the two:07 barrier for the primary time in her profession. She’s now the fourth-fastest performer of all-time, and simply 0.16 seconds off of McKeown’s world-leading time. She might not head into the Olympics as *the* favourite to win, however she definitely has the expertise and velocity to get on prime.

On this occasion, the backstroke leg is Douglass’s kryptonite. Her velocity in fly, breast, and free are world-class, however by some means, she’s hardly improved since 2021 on backstroke (her Tokyo Olympic last backstroke break up was 33.93). On the 2023 World Championships, she was in fifth place on the 100-meter mark after posting the third-worst backstroke break up within the last, and needed to claw her approach again to win the race. In Paris, the one approach she’ll be capable of win is that if she’s not lagging too far behind on the midway mark, and if she has the closing velocity to come back again after a sub-par backstroke leg. In distinction although, Douglass has the quickest butterfly and breaststroke velocity out of the sphere (the one swimmer out of the highest 4 with the quickest splits in two classes), which is able to make up for her backstroke deficiencies in between.

Douglass has nearly each main 200 IM title (lengthy course Worlds, brief course Worlds, NCAA) to her title, and she or he received bronze on this occasion on the Tokyo Olympics. Now, she’s going to chase after the one achievement not in her awards cupboard: Olympic gold.

Kaylee McKeown

PB Splits:

Throughout the 2020-21 lengthy course season, McKeown posted a 200 IM time (2:08.23) that might have received gold on the Tokyo Olympics. Nonetheless, she determined to drop the occasion as a result of the semi-finals fell throughout the identical session because the 100 again last. This yr, the 200 IM semis come after the 200 again finals, however she’s nonetheless going to chase after the occasion anyway. And he or she is available in as the highest seed with an entry time of two:06.63, practically two seconds quicker than her world-leading time from three years in the past.

McKeown has the worst opening velocity out of the sphere, nevertheless it’s not like her butterfly leg is unhealthy by any means. In truth, she’s most likely probably the most well-rounded swimmer out of the highest 4 — she has no standout power (as a world record-caliber backstroker, her backstroke break up is elite, however not “quickest of all-time” revolutionary), however no blaring weak point both. She swims her race the identical approach that Katinka Hosszu did when she set her world document of two:06.12 (27.30/31.64/36.70/30.48), so interpret that well-roundedness in any approach that you just want to interpret it.

The 200 IM wasn’t McKeown’s finest race at both the 2022 or 2023 World Championships. In 2022, she obtained dominated by Walsh, and in 2023, she was disqualified within the semi-finals. If she have been to place up a big-time race in Tokyo, it might be her first time doing so at a serious worldwide meet. However that reality shouldn’t be too regarding — her double backstroke golds at each the Tokyo Olympics and Fukuoka Worlds present that she is aware of find out how to get issues achieved when it issues probably the most.

Alex Walsh

PB Splits:

Walsh, the reigning Olympic silver medalist (and 2023 Worlds silver medalist), looks like such a wild card. She has it in her t0 win gold, however she may additionally very properly end off the rostrum. Initially of the Paris Olympic cycle, she dominated the 200 IM, profitable at 2022 World Championships by 1.44 seconds. Nonetheless, now she’s the one swimmer out of the highest 4 to haven’t been underneath 2:07 earlier than. As well as, her finest time stays the identical since 2022 — after 2022 Worlds, she hasn’t been quicker than 2:07.63.

We said this in final yr’s preview that Walsh’s largest weak point is her ending velocity. She was run down by Ohashi in Tokyo and by Douglass in Fukuoka, always struggling to get underneath 30.5 on her freestyle leg (in comparison with McKeown, McIntosh, and Douglass, who’ve all posted 29-point splits up to now). If she have been to win this race, she’ll most likely must be main by a big margin on the 150-meter mark, which is a tall process given how sturdy Douglass and McKeown are on the breaststroke leg.

Walsh’s largest benefit is that the 200 IM will probably be her solely occasion on the Olympics. She will be able to focus all of her vitality on this race, in contrast to her rivals who must take care of the fatigue of racing a number of particular person occasions and relays. So whereas she will not be favored to medal proper now, she may positively pull off a shock victory.

Everybody Else

China’s Yu Yiting completed in fifth on the Tokyo Olympics, setting a World Junior File time of two:09.57 which has since then been damaged by each Leah Hayes and McIntosh. She’s improved since then, dropping her finest time to a 2:07.75 to rank because the sixth-fastest swimmer on the planet this season. Nonetheless, she has podium historical past — in 2023, she took benefit of McKeown and McIntosh’s absences and earned herself a bronze at Worlds (after which obtained bronze once more at 2024 Worlds). It could be onerous for her to interrupt into podium place this yr with all the highest contenders round, however she’s additionally simply 18 years previous and has one of many biggest upsides within the area.

Yu is thought for going out actually quick (she opened her 2023 Worlds race with a 26.90 fly leg), so look ahead to her to be a pacemaker for the remainder of the sphere.

Storied veteran Sydney Pickrem enters the Olympics because the fifth-fastest swimmer on the planet, by advantage of her 2:07.68 from Canadian trials. That swim was her first time going underneath 2:08, and units her as much as earn a minor medal if any of the highest swimmers falter. She’s been comparatively inconsistent at main meets inside the final Olympic cycle relating to swimming this race, however 2024 Worlds silver and her two finest instances this yr (after not enhancing since 2019) are a optimistic signal.

The ultimate three swimmers on this area underneath the two:09 barrier are Israel’s Anastasia Gorbenko, the Netherlands’ Marrit Steenbergen, and Nice Britain’s Abbie Wooden. Gorbenko has made finals at each the 2022 and 2023 Worlds, ending fifth final yr. She’s been on a relentless enchancment trajectory since Tokyo, dropping from 2:10.55 to 2:08.55 in a span of three years. After breaking 2:09 for the primary time this yr, she is now ranked because the eighth-fastest swimmer on the planet. Steenbergen sits proper behind her in ninth with a time 2:08.91, having additionally damaged 2:09 for the primary time this yr. She’s a much bigger contender in dash occasions just like the 100 free, however she finaled within the 200 IM at 2023 Worlds and will probably be within the working to last once more this yr.

On the Tokyo Olympics, Wooden missed the rostrum by 0.06 seconds, getting run down by Douglass on the freestyle leg. Now, the rostrum appears miles away from her, however she’s really gotten higher since 2021, setting a finest time of two:08.91 this April. It appears unlikely that she’ll get redemption by way of medalling in Paris, however she’ll get redemption by way of a time enchancment for certain.

Final yr, Australia’s Jenna Forrester practically snatched a spot on the rostrum, setting a finest time of two:08.98 to complete fourth throughout the Worlds finals. She’s not certified to race the 200 IM at this Olympics, however fellow Aussie Ella Ramsay is. Ramsay is ranked thirteenth on the planet with a time of two:09.32, and will definitely be within the working to last. She’s going to be racing in her first main lengthy course competitors since 2022 Worlds, the place she completed fifteenth within the 200 IM semifinals and missed finals.

And what about Yui Ohashi, the reigning Olympic champion? She hasn’t made an extended course worldwide last since profitable gold in 2021, and appears to be within the closing chapters of her profession. Nonetheless, she is certified for the Olympics with a time of two:09.17, and is ranked twelfth on the planet proper now. She will not be a favourite to defend her Olympic title, however she definitely has the worldwide expertise to tug off a finals berth — and hey, she wasn’t favourite coming into Tokyo, so something may occur in Paris.

SwimSwam’s Picks

Deciding between McKeown, Douglass, and McIntosh felt like splitting hairs, however we in the end went with McKeown due to how well-rounded her race is — she doesn’t have to fret about one stroke messing her mojo up in the best way that it might for her rivals. As well as, she additionally is aware of find out how to pull by way of in shut races, as proven by way of her backstroke battles with Regan Smith the place she’s received nearly each single time. Nonetheless, all three of those swimmers may emerge because the winner in a tightly-contested battle. So may Walsh, whom we put at fourth solely as a result of she hasn’t been on the identical stage as the highest three seeds not too long ago, however may nonetheless pull off an upset.

If there’s one factor that’s sure although, it’s that this occasion has gotten a lot quicker since Tokyo. Ohashi’s profitable time from then (2:08.52) would rank eighth within the World proper now, whereas Douglass’s bronze medal time (2:09.04) seemingly wouldn’t even last this yr.